Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE MCS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE AN
ALREADY COMPLICATED FORECAST. THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT
THE MCS WILL DRAG ITSELF SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. A SUBTLE JET MAX THAT SEEMS TO BE
SHOWN ON WV SATELLITE MAY CAUSE A TEMPORARY FLARE-UP ON THE LINE
OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING... ALTHOUGH ITS EFFECTS MAY
INSTEAD BE TOO FAR WEST TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE.

BY AFTERNOON... MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. THEY ALSO ALL PORTRAY A BULGING DRYLINE JUST WEST OF
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS ALL POINTS TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... PARTICULARLY
IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE SPC MODERATE RISK. LARGE VALUES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE PROBABILITY OF TRAINING STORMS SUGGEST
THAT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE QUITE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE CLOSER TO A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INSTEAD OF -- OR IN ADDITION TO -- THE DRYLINE.

AFTER TONIGHT... THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT THE ENTIRE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE EAST... SO A FEW
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS... WEATHER... QPF... AND EVEN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWER PROGRESS.
HOWEVER... DUE TO LIMITED TIME FOR THIS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE PAST DAY 3. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE
THE NEED TO EXTEND POPS LATER IN THE WEEK.

UNLESS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS DO SOMETHING COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED... A
FLOOD WATCH APPEARS INEVITABLE AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. REPEATED MCS EVENTS OVER NEARLY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF TOTAL RAINFALL... SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. HPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 5- TO 6-INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS
SEEMS QUITE DOABLE IF THE SYSTEM IS AS SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS THE
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGEST. THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY WITH
LOCATION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION PRECLUDES A WATCH AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  78  63 /  50  70  70  60
HOBART OK         83  63  75  60 /  60  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  68  80  63 /  40  60  60  60
GAGE OK           80  58  73  52 /  70  60  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     82  67  79  62 /  50  70  70  70
DURANT OK         85  68  83  67 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
748 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
748 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO SAYRE
OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AND IS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CUSHING... TO DUNCAN... TO NORMAN... TO
ARCHER CITY.

TIMING...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN TO INITIATE OR CONTINUE SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH... AND
TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. DAMAGING LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY DRY LINE ACROSS
THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS  WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN NUMBER LATER TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET STREAM STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS... BUT THE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST... WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE EASTWARD SPREAD OF STORMS INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING UNDER THE LARGER AND
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

24

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