Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK IN PROGRESS WITH HIGHER-END
POTENTIAL FROM NW OK NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY PROVIDING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN REGION
OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /CAPES 3000-5000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF DRYLINE.
UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK SOME IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROF
DROPPING INTO AZ/NM TONIGHT... WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF STORMS OFF THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT. HIGHER POPS
THUS ARE CONFINED TO W PARTS OF THE CWA... AND ESPECIALLY NW OK.
BACKED UPPER FLOW ALSO WILL LEAD TO ANVIL SEEDING OF DOWNWIND
STORMS BASED ON CURRENT ORIENTATION OF CORES ALONG THE DRYLINE.
STORMS LIKELY TO INITIATE FARTHER S DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO OR
THROUGH W TX... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SW OK AND OUR N TX ZONES.
WEAKER FORCING ALOFT AND LESS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY KEEP THE MORE
SOUTHERN STORMS RELATIVELY ISOLATED. THIS ALONG WITH MORE VEERED
UPPER FLOW RAISES CONCERNS THAT STORMS FARTHER S WILL HAVE EQUAL
OR GREATER TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THAN THE ONES FROM N OK
NORTHWARD.

LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER S AND E TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER SETUP FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ON SUNDAY FARTHER S AND E
TOWARD MIDDLE THIRD OF OK AND SW INTO N TX. MLCAPES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXTREME AS THOSE OBSERVED TODAY - WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MORE
LIKELY. DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK W TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON SUNDAY... ALONG WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT IN THE MOIST SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE.
DESPITE BACKED UPPER FLOW EXPECTED... LOW LEVELS ALSO ARE
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY BACKED TO PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS. HARD TO PINPOINT RELATIVE GREATER RISK AREAS
ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 24

.LONG TERM...
S END OF WESTERN TROF LIKELY TO BE SLOW IN COMING OUT AS
CUTOFF DEVELOPS OFF SE COAST AND UPSTREAM PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKED.
TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG MODELS BUT MORE BLOCKY PATTERN
ARGUES FOR SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.
POPS THUS ARE EXTENDED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... LONG-TERM POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE ON MULTIPLE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES
DURING THE WEEK DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET GROUND AND PROLONGED
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL TRENDS
ARE TO BRING RIDGING INTO THE S PLAINS BY FRI-SAT... THUS WARMER
WITH LOWER POPS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON
MEX MOS GUIDANCE. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  69  80  65 /  20  30  50  60
HOBART OK         85  67  83  63 /  30  40  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  71  84  68 /  20  30  50  60
GAGE OK           84  62  80  58 /  40  60  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     83  70  82  67 /  20  40  50  70
DURANT OK         84  70  85  68 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/24

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