Severe Thunderstorm Warning 618, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AS STRONG LLJ CONT OVER THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE... WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. DUE TO THIS EARLY
CONVECTION JUST SPENT TIME ON FIRST FEW PERIODS OF FORECAST SO CAN
HELP WITH SHORT TERM OPERATIONS.

UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS UPR LOW
WILL LIFT NE THE REST OF THE WEEK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY... SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL... AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS DRYLINE
CONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS REGION. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER... LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY...
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA IN SW PORTIONS OF FA. THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DUST ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER... PARAMETERS
DO NOT QUITE MATCH UP TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.

SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
SATURDAY BEGINNING MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK NORTHWARD. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER... MODELS CONT TO DIFFER FROM
RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  56  73  48 /  70  20  10  10
HOBART OK         83  53  75  47 /  50  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  56  82  47 /  40  10  10  10
GAGE OK           79  49  69  36 /  50  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  56  69  48 /  80  40  20  10
DURANT OK         79  60  82  55 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
626 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS ELSEWHERE
OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS LOCATED EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CHEROKEE...TO WATONGA...TO DUNCAN AND WAURIKA. A SLIGHT RISK
EXTENDS EAST OF A ARNETT...TO ELK CITY...TO VERNON AND SEYMOUR
TEXAS LINE.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AFTER 2
PM.

IMPACTS...
IN THE MORNING... NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS... BASEBALL SIZE HAIL... WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH... AND TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THESE
STORMS HAD DEVELOPED DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A DRY LINE THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...ALLOWING
INSTABILITY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE ADVANCING DRY LINE TO TRIGGER SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS... AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN YOUR AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY OCT 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY CAUSE BLOWING DUST THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

THE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR LEADING TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS  WILL ALSO INCREASE WILDFIRE
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

MAXWELL

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