Severe Thunderstorm Warning 617, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AS STRONG LLJ CONT OVER THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE... WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. DUE TO THIS EARLY
CONVECTION JUST SPENT TIME ON FIRST FEW PERIODS OF FORECAST SO CAN
HELP WITH SHORT TERM OPERATIONS.

UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS UPR LOW
WILL LIFT NE THE REST OF THE WEEK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY... SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL... AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS DRYLINE
CONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS REGION. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER... LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY...
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA IN SW PORTIONS OF FA. THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DUST ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER... PARAMETERS
DO NOT QUITE MATCH UP TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.

SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
SATURDAY BEGINNING MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK NORTHWARD. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER... MODELS CONT TO DIFFER FROM
RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  56  73  48 /  70  20  10  10
HOBART OK         83  53  75  47 /  50  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  56  82  47 /  40  10  10  10
GAGE OK           79  49  69  36 /  50  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  56  69  48 /  80  40  20  10
DURANT OK         79  60  82  55 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1030 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AND NORTH OF A RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE SIZE TOWARDS LATE TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY OCT 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...25 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING HOURS TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHEROKEE...TO LAWTON...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. A SLIGHT
RISK EXISTS ELSEWHERE IN OKLAHOMA AND OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM WILL APPROACH AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A DRY LINE THROUGH WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ALSO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ADVANCING DRY LINE TO TRIGGER
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

OKZ009-010-014-015-170815-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-WOODWARD OK-ELLIS OK-
257 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY...ELLIS...ROGER MILLS
AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HARMON TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANGORA AT 257 AM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

OKZ005-170845-
WOODS OK-
330 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WOODS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PLAINVIEW AT 330 AM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

WR

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