Flash Flood Warning 219, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE ANY
COUNTIES FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND OUR WESTERN
CWA WILL ONLY MEANDER A LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN CANADA
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR AXIS OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND. COME NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS WEST TO EAST AND SLIDES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES...EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.

DUE TO OUR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS AND EASTERN SIDE LIFT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CWA. SINCE THIS IS A WARM CORE SYSTEM...THE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS AND SCATTERED DURING THE DAYTIME AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE LOWS CENTER AT NIGHTTIME WHICH IS OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW...BUT A BRIEF SMALL FUNNEL
OR AN F0 VORTICE COULD OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY.

WE/VE KEPT POPS HIGH FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AND ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS
TO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH ISN/T LEAVING SOON.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FORECASTING HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DIFFICULT. DECIDE TO PULL HIGH BACK SLIGHTLY
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  84  72  87  73 /  70  70  60  50  30
WACO, TX              75  86  73  87  73 /  60  60  50  50  20
PARIS, TX             72  83  71  85  71 /  70  70  50  40  30
DENTON, TX            73  83  70  86  71 /  80  70  60  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  84  71  86  71 /  70  70  60  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  84  73  87  73 /  70  70  60  50  30
TERRELL, TX           74  85  72  86  73 /  60  60  50  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  86  72  88  73 /  50  60  50  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            75  87  72  87  72 /  50  60  40  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER TONIGHT. ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
135 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ118-119-261900-
TARRANT TX-DALLAS TX-
135 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DALLAS COUNTY
  EASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN CENTERED 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALVARADO...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
CLUSTER OF STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO DALLAS AND TARRANT COUNTIES
BY 200 PM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
230 PM INCLUDE ARLINGTON...MANSFIELD...DESOTO...DUNCANVILLE...AND
GRAND PRAIRIE.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3254 9732 3256 9659 3298 9652 3299 9723

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N OLNEY               33.38N  98.76W
06/26/2007                   YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 79 BETWEEN OLNEY AND WICHITA FALLS CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ122-135-262045-
VAN ZANDT TX-HENDERSON TX-
251 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY
  VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUN BARREL CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANEY CITY...CANTON...
ENCHANTED OAKS...EUSTACE...GUN BARREL CITY...SEVEN POINTS...TOOL...
VAN...WILLS POINT AND PURTIS CREEK STATE PARK.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3237 9634 3214 9612 3252 9558 3274 9609
      3238 9609

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ092-103-262100-
COOKE TX-DENTON TX-
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY
  NORTHERN DENTON COUNTY

AT 255 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF
NOCONA TO 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWIE TO BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE AUBREY...CALLISBURG...
CROSS ROADS...DENTON...GAINESVILLE...KRUGERVILLE...KRUM...LINDSAY...
LITTLE ELM...MUENSTER...PILOT POINT...SANGER...SHADY SHORES...RAY
ROBERTS PARK ISLE DU BOIS AND RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR DENTON AND COOKE COUNTIES BY 400 PM.

LAT...LON 3385 9747 3381 9741 3386 9732 3386 9717
      3377 9721 3372 9711 3382 9704 3385 9707
      3385 9708 3387 9694 3387 9694 3343 9694
      3342 9690 3315 9689 3316 9738 3343 9738
      3344 9748

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ105-262030-
HUNT TX-
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN HUNT COUNTY

AT 303 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF TERRELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CADDO MILLS...CAMPBELL...
GREENVILLE...QUINLAN AND WEST TAWAKONI.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3324 9592 3314 9586 3302 9587 3296 9598
      3286 9599 3285 9624 3286 9628 3283 9630
      3316 9629

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ147-262030-
FREESTONE TX-
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY

AT 304 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRFIELD...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

AREAS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FAIRFIELD...TEAGUE AND
FAIRFIELD LAKE STATE PARK.

VERY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...PEA-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3163 9630 3160 9609 3200 9599 3203 9625

92