Flash Flood Warning 203, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.AVIATION...
1200 AM CDT

LLJ OF 30-35KTS 2000FT AND ABOVE HAS ALLOWED FOR A NEARLY SEAMLESS
TRANSITION FROM AFTERNOON SFC-HEATING CONVECTION TO NOCTURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. MCS OVER HGX CWA QUICKLY DISSIPATED...AND GULF FETCH IS
NOW COMPLETELY UNIMPEDED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-MORNING...WITH A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER
DAYBREAK. PROLONGED TSRA THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. 25

&&

.UPDATE...
937 PM CDT

EARLIER IN THE EVENING...WE HAD AN INCLINATION TO LOWER THE POPS
(RAIN CHANCES) IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORMATION...WE WILL KEEP THE
POPS AS THEY WERE FROM THE 400 PM FORECAST. TEMPERATURE...WIND...
AND CLOUD FORECASTS ALSO ARE LOOKING GOOD...THUS WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS IT STANDS..AT LEAST TO THIS POINT.

THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND AN AREA OF INSTABILITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP THOSE STORMS ACTIVE FOR AWHILE...AS THEY MOVE
NORTHWARD...TOWARDS NORTHEAST TEXAS.  CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED A
BIT IN THE AREAS NORTH OF DFW...BUT MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.  #26

.AVIATION...
630 PM CDT

SHRA/TSRA HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS TARRANT. AWW EXPIRED AT 5 PM...AND
ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY VCTS...LTG SHOULD BE ON THE FRINGE OF 10NM RANGE
RING. APPEARS AS THOUGH BACK EDGE SHOULD EVACUATE METRO TAF SITES BY
01Z (8 PM CDT)...AND WILL END PRECIP AT THAT TIME. MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LLJ
LIKELY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SHRA ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WILL
REFRAIN FROM TS/CB MENTION UNTIL TUES AFTERNOON. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
235 PM CDT

OUR FORECAST IS NOT THAT COMPLICATED. WET...WET...WET.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...BUT WE/LL COVER THAT LATER.

WEAK STATIONARY UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST THROCKMORTON COUNTY
PER SPIN EVIDENT IN RADAR LOOP. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO OUR
WEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS...THE UPPER LOW
WILL MIGRATE THROUGH OKLAHOMA...ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA BEFORE EXTENDING BACK OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

LOTS OF FACTORS IN PLAY FOR THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS STATED
EARLIER...PWATS ARE INCREASE TO AROUND 2.15 INCH IN AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH LI/S -2 TO -4 AND CAPES RUNNING 600-1200 J/KG. DO NOT
EXPECTED MUCH SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG MID LAPSE
RATES...JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR (DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED).
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP TO 18000 FEET...FAIRLY STRONG
NOCTURNAL LLJ AND A CONTINUOUS FEED OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF UP TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH POPS NEXT TWO DAYS AS ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOVING AND COVERING A LOT OF GROUND.

NOT TOO MUCH TO SAY ABOUT TEMPERATURES.  MOS NUMBER REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS...BUT I DID RAISE SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS TO KEEP THEM DROPPING
BELOW FORECAST DEWPOINTS. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  84  73  84  72 /  70  90  70  60  50
WACO, TX              73  85  73  84  73 /  80  90  70  60  50
PARIS, TX             72  82  72  83  70 /  60 100  60  60  50
DENTON, TX            73  84  72  83  71 /  60  90  70  60  50
MCKINNEY, TX          73  83  72  83  70 /  60  90  70  60  50
DALLAS, TX            73  84  72  85  72 /  70  90  70  60  50
TERRELL, TX           74  84  72  83  72 /  70  90  60  60  40
CORSICANA, TX         74  84  73  85  73 /  70  90  60  60  40
TEMPLE, TX            73  85  74  84  72 /  80  90  70  60  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

26/05/25/84/21/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
329 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BOTH DAYS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...THEN DIMINISHING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAWIDE MONDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR FLOODING REPORTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E VALLEY VIEW         33.49N  97.07W
06/25/2007                   COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            FM 2071 AT 922. ROAD CLOSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE CALLISBURG         33.65N  96.95W
06/25/2007                   COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            FM 678...NORTH OF HWY. 82-ROAD CLOSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
720 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E VALLEY VIEW         33.49N  97.07W
06/25/2007                   COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROAD CLOSURES ON 922 EAST OF VALLEY VIEW.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 SW CALLISBURG         33.62N  97.11W
06/25/2007                   COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROAD CLOSED AT FM 371 AT 2986.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1031 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

TXZ144-260400-
BOSQUE TX-
1031 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BOSQUE COUNTY

AT 1031 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLIFTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CLIFTON...MERIDIAN AND
MERIDIAN STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3168 9774 3167 9753 3199 9748 3200 9774

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ143-260530-
HAMILTON TX-
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY

AT 1204 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HAMILTON.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...HALF INCH
SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3158 9834 3147 9816 3177 9799 3183 9821

SCHULTZ