Flash Flood Warning 208, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TEMPORARILY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SUNSET.  THERE SHOULD BE A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION
BECOMES FOCUSED AROUND THE CORE OF THE LOW.

EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN
THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.  CEILING...VISIBILITY AND PRECIPITATION
TRENDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS
WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AND INCREASING
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME.

&&

.UPDATE.
1115 AM CDT.

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...

WE DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE AN UPDATED FORECAST AT MIDDAY.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS VERY HIGH POPS AND THE ONLY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TO
LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE DECIDED TO RIDE
WITH THESE POPS AND CONCENTRATE ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL LIKELY TRIM THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (SE 1/2 CWA)
OUT OF THE FFA.

LIKE YESTERDAY...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME ECHO
TRAINING WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOOD EVENTS...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA.

NOTE:  WE WOULD LIKE TO REMIND THE PUBLIC TO TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN BY AVOIDING THOSE ROADS COVERED WITH WATER OF ANY DEPTH.  75

&&

AVIATION...PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007/
WE ARE MONITORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT FTW AND AFW
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AND REACH DFW AND DAL BY 13Z. PRIOR TO
12Z...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING ACROSS DFW AND NEAR DAL.
WILL MONITOR LIGHTNING TRENDS AS THE SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACH DFW AND
ISSUE AN AWW IF NECESSARY.

FOR ACT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE REMAINING WEST AND NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL SO WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF TAFS THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIP MIDDAY WITH MORE T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.  SCHULTZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007/
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE AND VERY WET WILL BE THE THEME THIS PACKAGE WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS...AS STAGNANT/WARM-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST TO THE N-NW OF N TX THROUGH THURS...AS N
TX REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG BLOCKING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE SE CONUS AND REX-BLOCK RIDGE OVER SRN ROCKIES. WELL
CONTINUE THE DIURNAL TRENDS OF CONVECTION WITH THIS WARM- CORE TYPE
SYSTEM (SIMILAR TO TROPICAL SYSTEMS). THAT TREND BEING BANDS OF
CONVECTION STREAMING NWD DURING THE MIXING DURING THE
DAY...CONSTRICTING MORE OVER W/NW 1/2 OF N TX AT NIGHT UNDERNEATH
AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHERE LIFT IS BETTER MAXIMIZED.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) FOR ALL OF N
TX THROUGH WED A.M. WE HAD THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE WATCH AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT PIN POINTING HEAVY RAIN AXIS
DIFFICULT BEYOND WED MORNING...THOUGH IF WE HAD TO GUESS...ITD
PROBABLY BE THE NW COUNTIES CLOSER TO WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OKLAHOMA. WELL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER
RUN AND CRACK AT SOLVING THESE ISSUES.

AFTER THURS...BEST THREAT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ALONG/N OF I-20...AS DISTURBANCE TRIES TO FINALLY LIFT SLOWLY E/NEWD
TOWARD ERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS...WITH SE CONUS RIDGE FINALLY
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. ANOTHER WET WEEK FOLKS HOPEFULLY...
THINGS WILL SLOWLY SIMMER DOWN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EWD OVER THE SRN
PLAINS STATES INCLUDING N TX.

AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO MOS AS WE HIT 88 DEG F YESTERDAY. SOME
TEMPORARY/BRIEF SUNSHINE CANT BE RULED OUT DURING PRIME MIXING OF
THE EARLY/MID AFTN HRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  72  85  72  88 /  90  90  70  40  40
WACO, TX              86  73  87  73  88 /  90  80  60  40  40
PARIS, TX             82  72  84  71  88 /  90  90  70  40  40
DENTON, TX            84  72  84  70  87 / 100  90  70  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          83  71  85  71  88 /  90  90  70  40  40
DALLAS, TX            85  73  85  73  88 /  90  90  70  40  40
TERRELL, TX           84  71  86  72  88 /  90  90  60  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         85  73  87  72  89 /  80  80  60  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            85  73  88  72  87 /  90  70  50  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-270845-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
339 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A NEAR STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. MAIN CONCERNS WILL
BE TRAINING OF STORMS CONTAINING VERY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND...
WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AGAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME TO ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CONTINUED RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOCONA                  33.78N  97.73W
06/26/2007                   MONTAGUE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM 103 NORTH OF NOCONA CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. HIGH
            WATER REPORTED OVER SEVERAL OTHER COUNTY ROADS NEAR
            NOCONA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCGREGOR                31.45N  97.38W
06/25/2007                   MCLENNAN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AT BALL PARK