Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 291601
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZC003-009-019-021-023-291730-
GRAHAM AZ-COCHISE AZ-SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
850 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL...EASTERN PIMA...NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...
NORTHWESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 855 AM MST...FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A BROAD 
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN 
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA 
CRUZ...NORTHWESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES. 
DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT BETWEEN ONE TO 
THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS AMOUNT 
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ON TOP OF THE RAIN THAT HAS 
FALLEN IN THE PAST TWO DAYS...WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN 
WASHES DRAINING OUT OF THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS STREETS 
WERE FLOODED AND CLOSED THROUGHOUT THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN THE SABINO CREEK AND WILL THREATEN 
HOMES...PERSONS IN THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR SABINO CREEK SHOULD 
SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

THE ARAVAIPA CREEK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT FLOW AND APPROACH FLOOD 
STAGE NEAR MAMMOTH THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE CIENEGA CREEK NEAR SONOITA WILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL THROUGH 
THE DAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THE WARNED AREA.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3175 11151 3157 11066 3174 11001 3295 11018
      3322 11040 3262 11132

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 291646
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
939 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZC003-009-019-021-023-291730-
GRAHAM AZ-COCHISE AZ-SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
939 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL...EASTERN PIMA...NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...
NORTHWESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 936 AM MST...AT 940 AM MST...FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL 
COUNTY...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ...NORTHWESTERN COCHISE AND 
SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES 
INDICATE THAT BETWEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ON 
TOP OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST TWO DAYS...WILL LEAD TO 
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN WASHES DRAINING OUT OF THE SURROUNDING 
MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS STREETS WERE FLOODED AND CLOSED THROUGHOUT THE 
TUCSON METRO AREA.

ALL WASHES AND STREAMS ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA WILL HAVE 
SIGNIFICANT WATER FLOWS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ARAVAIPA CREEK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT FLOW AND APPROACH FLOOD 
STAGE NEAR MAMMOTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WATER WILL CAUSE A 
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FLOWS IN THE SAN PEDRO RIVER FROM MAMMOTH 
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE CIENEGA CREEK NEAR SONOITA WILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL THROUGH 
THE DAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THE WARNED AREA.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3175 11151 3157 11066 3174 11001 3295 11018
      3322 11040 3262 11132

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SHOEMAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER
BUSY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHICH IN MY 12 YEARS IN ARIZONA...I CANT
REMEMBER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY CONTUINING FOR FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT. THE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...ANOTHER ODDITY IN LATE JULY...CONTINUES TO SPIN
IN WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM AND KICKING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SO MOIST...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY STORM IS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
ANWWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH THE GROUND PRETTY SATURATED
AFTER FOUR DAYS OF ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND ALL
WEEKEND AND KICK OFF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AS DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW. COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AGAIN TODAY...AS WE ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH
PRETTY GOOD ACTION ACROSS THE REGION...AS OF 3 AM. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHERE NOT MUCH RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS MORNING INCLUDING FRIDAY. WILL HOWEVER KEEP FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GOING UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE AROUND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AFTER THIS
SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...EXPECT DAILY VARIABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES INCHING TOWARD
NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035
     (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA
     RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY)...WESTERN
     PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA
     COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND COCHISE COUNTY) UNTIL 8 PM MST
     THIS EVENING.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZZ019-029>035-300300-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON
METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
400 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

AN UPPER LOW RESIDES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...THE COMBINATION OF THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WILL START
TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...REFER TO
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THAT WILL BE
ISSUED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.

BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK...A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PERHAPS WESTERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
COULD BRIEFLY REACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON