Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 291232
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
528 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZC019-021-291500-
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
528 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 523 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY AND 
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES 
INDICATE THAT BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE 
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD 
OF TIME...ON TOP OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST TWO 
DAYS...WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN WASHES DRAINING OUT OF THE 
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3262 11111 3262 11046 3197 11046 3197 11109

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 291359
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
658 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZC019-021-291500-
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
658 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 651 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY AND 
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES INDICATE 
THAT BETWEEN ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...WITH UP TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES IN THE CATALINA AND 
RINCON MOUNTAINS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ON 
TOP OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST TWO DAYS...WILL LEAD TO 
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN WASHES DRAINING OUT OF THE SURROUNDING 
MOUNTAINS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3262 11111 3262 11046 3197 11047 3197 11109

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER
BUSY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHICH IN MY 12 YEARS IN ARIZONA...I CANT
REMEMBER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY CONTUINING FOR FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT. THE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...ANOTHER ODDITY IN LATE JULY...CONTINUES TO SPIN
IN WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM AND KICKING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SO MOIST...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY STORM IS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
ANWWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH THE GROUND PRETTY SATURATED
AFTER FOUR DAYS OF ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND ALL
WEEKEND AND KICK OFF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AS DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW. COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AGAIN TODAY...AS WE ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH
PRETTY GOOD ACTION ACROSS THE REGION...AS OF 3 AM. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHERE NOT MUCH RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS MORNING INCLUDING FRIDAY. WILL HOWEVER KEEP FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GOING UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE AROUND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AFTER THIS
SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...EXPECT DAILY VARIABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES INCHING TOWARD
NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035
     (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA
     RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY)...WESTERN
     PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA
     COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND COCHISE COUNTY) UNTIL 8 PM MST
     THIS EVENING.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZZ019-029>035-300300-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON
METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
400 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

AN UPPER LOW RESIDES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...THE COMBINATION OF THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WILL START
TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...REFER TO
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THAT WILL BE
ISSUED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.

BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK...A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PERHAPS WESTERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
COULD BRIEFLY REACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON