Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF GALLUP...NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE NEEDED
DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE
MOISTURE RESIDES OVER ARIZONA WITH AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND
THE GOES TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. COCHISE AND PINAL COUNTIES HAVE HAD
THE MAJORITY OF FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP OVER COCHISE COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE GROUND NEAR SATURATION HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING AND THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING POSTED OVER ARIZONA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THE LOW WEAKENS
ALONG WITH ITS SUPPORT RESULTING IN A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN. ON
MONDAY A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE KNOCKING THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WESTERN
DESERTS AND LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035
     (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA
     RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM COUNTY)...WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO
     OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
     COCHISE COUNTY) UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZZ019-029>035-291400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
925 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING...

AN UPPER LOW RESIDES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER WEST
INTO ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THE
COMBINATION OF THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE DEEP
MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING...

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING ON SATURDAY. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THAT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK...A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PERHAPS WESTERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP DURING COULD BRIEFLY REACH OR EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
539 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     FLASH FLOOD      18 NNW PIRTLEVILLE      31.60N 109.70W
07/28/2006                   COCHISE            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL REPORTED A VEHICLE STUCK IN
            FLOODED ROADWAY ON DAVIS ROAD WEST OF MCNEAL.

&&

EVANS