Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 290748
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1246 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZC019-290930-
PIMA AZ-
1246 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 1240 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATED A SLOW MOVING 
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IN A REMOTE AREA OF FAR EASTERN PIMA 
COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES AND SPOTTERS 
INDICATED THAT BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES HAD FALLEN 
SINCE MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND THIS HEAVY RAIN 
WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN CIENEGA WASH.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3175 11079 3175 11046 3202 11045 3200 11077

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 290846
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
143 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

AZC019-290930-
PIMA AZ-
143 AM MST SAT JUL 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM MST FOR 
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 135 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS 
DIMINISHED TO LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WARNED AREA IN FAR EASTERN PIMA 
COUNTY. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCAL STREAMS 
WITH ONE TO THREE FOOT RISE IN WATER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY THE CIENEGA 
AND DAVIDSON CANYON WASHES...WHICH EVENTUALLY DRAIN INTO THE PANTANO 
WASH.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3175 11079 3175 11046 3202 11045 3200 11077

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF GALLUP...NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE NEEDED
DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. AMPLE
MOISTURE RESIDES OVER ARIZONA WITH AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND
THE GOES TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. COCHISE AND PINAL COUNTIES HAVE HAD
THE MAJORITY OF FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP OVER COCHISE COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE GROUND NEAR SATURATION HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING AND THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING POSTED OVER ARIZONA IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THE LOW WEAKENS
ALONG WITH ITS SUPPORT RESULTING IN A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN. ON
MONDAY A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE KNOCKING THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WESTERN
DESERTS AND LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035
     (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA
     RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM COUNTY)...WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO
     OODHAM NATION...EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
     COCHISE COUNTY) UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

AZZ019-029>035-291400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
925 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING...

AN UPPER LOW RESIDES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER WEST
INTO ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THE
COMBINATION OF THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE DEEP
MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING...

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING ON SATURDAY. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THAT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK...A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PERHAPS WESTERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP DURING COULD BRIEFLY REACH OR EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON