Severe Thunderstorm Warning 518, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE DRYLINE...AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW MO TO TULSA AND SW INTO SCNTRL OK.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER CAPE AIR ACROSS FAR ERN
OK AND NW AR...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL INTO NE OK. STRONG FORCING AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
(0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER 60 KTS) AND IMPRESSIVE MUCAPES (2000 J/KG)
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SE OK...WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE
LOCALLY BACKED IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY FASTER RUC/GFS IN THE NEAR TERM CONCERNING
THE COLD FRONT TIMING. EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO BE PUSHING INTO FAR
NW AR AROUND 14-15Z...AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z. HIGHEST POPS OBVIOUSLY NEEDED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE DECIDING ON FINAL
NUMBERS.

POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CAA AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO PUSH S INTO NE OK/NW AR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT GENERALLY FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET FOR HIGHS.

COOL NIGHT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE.

GRADUAL WARMUP TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE DRIER NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. 00Z GFS CONTINUES SLOWER TREND WITH NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE EXTENDED...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  52  73  49 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   81  55  72  50 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   81  52  74  48 /  60  20  10  10
BVO   77  49  72  43 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   76  50  67  42 /  80  20  10  10
BYV   75  48  66  46 /  80  20  10  10
MKO   78  50  71  48 /  60  10  10  10
MIO   75  52  71  46 /  50  10  10  10
F10   77  50  72  48 /  50  10  10  10
HHW   85  59  76  53 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 17
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
445 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A SILOAM SPRINGS TO EUFAULA LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EARLY
THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
NEAR SILOAM SPRINGS TO EUFAUALA.  TORNADO WATCH 796 COVERS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS LINE. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE PRESENT...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  IN ADDITION TO A WIND AND HAIL RISK
...THERE IS A CHANCE OF TORNADOES,  AS THE SQUALL MOVES THROUGH THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ002-231045-
CARROLL AR-
510 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL

AT 510 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF BUSCH TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EUREKA SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT
RIDGE...DENVER...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...GREEN FOREST...
CARROLLTON...RULE...COIN...URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW...BUSCH AND BEAVER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ010-011-019-020-029-OKZ072>076-231200-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MADISON
AR-PITTSBURG OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     MADISON...WASHINGTON AND CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...LE FLORE...PITTSBURG AND LATIMER

AT 600 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM MAYFIELD TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF UNIONTOWN TO
KANIMA TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOWEN TO 3 MILES WEST OF
KIOWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF MADISON...WASHINGTON...FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...
SEBASTIAN...SEQUOYAH...HASKELL...LE FLORE...PITTSBURG AND LATIMER
COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 700 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-069-072>076-231215-
ADAIR OK-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE
FLORE OK-MADISON AR-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH
OK-WASHINGTON AR-
613 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL...MADISON...WASHINGTON AND CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...LE FLORE...PITTSBURG...LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA

AT 613 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM DELMAR TO 6 MILES EAST OF TAMAHA TO 26 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KIOWA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF CARROLL...MADISON...WASHINGTON...FRANKLIN...
CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN...ADAIR...SEQUOYAH...HASKELL...LE FLORE...
PITTSBURG...LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 715 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL
1100 AM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ011-019-020-029-OKZ072-074>076-231215-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MADISON
AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
637 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     MADISON AND CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...LE FLORE AND LATIMER

AT 637 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON TO 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BIDVILLE TO ALMA TO MULDROW TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
MCCURTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF MADISON...FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN...
SEQUOYAH...HASKELL...LE FLORE AND LATIMER COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 715 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LE FLORE COUNTY.

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