Severe Thunderstorm Warning 513, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE DRYLINE...AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW MO TO TULSA AND SW INTO SCNTRL OK.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER CAPE AIR ACROSS FAR ERN
OK AND NW AR...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL INTO NE OK. STRONG FORCING AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
(0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER 60 KTS) AND IMPRESSIVE MUCAPES (2000 J/KG)
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SE OK...WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE
LOCALLY BACKED IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY FASTER RUC/GFS IN THE NEAR TERM CONCERNING
THE COLD FRONT TIMING. EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO BE PUSHING INTO FAR
NW AR AROUND 14-15Z...AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z. HIGHEST POPS OBVIOUSLY NEEDED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE DECIDING ON FINAL
NUMBERS.

POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CAA AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO PUSH S INTO NE OK/NW AR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT GENERALLY FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET FOR HIGHS.

COOL NIGHT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE.

GRADUAL WARMUP TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE DRIER NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. 00Z GFS CONTINUES SLOWER TREND WITH NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE EXTENDED...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  52  73  49 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   81  55  72  50 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   81  52  74  48 /  60  20  10  10
BVO   77  49  72  43 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   76  50  67  42 /  80  20  10  10
BYV   75  48  66  46 /  80  20  10  10
MKO   78  50  71  48 /  60  10  10  10
MIO   75  52  71  46 /  50  10  10  10
F10   77  50  72  48 /  50  10  10  10
HHW   85  59  76  53 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 17
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=51.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM NOWATA TO OKEMAH
TO ARDMORE. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR A
MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE BEFORE STALLING AND THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WEST THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG LIVED TORNADOES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST THIS EVENING AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORM RISK...FIRE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY VEGETATION WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
AREAS WHERE RAINFALL REMAINS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BRINGING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
220 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

OKZ061-230745-
ROGERS OK-
220 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ROGERS

AT 220 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
WEST OF CLAREMORE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...FOYIL AND BUSHYHEAD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

OKZ057-060>062-067-230830-
CRAIG OK-MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
250 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG...ROGERS...MAYES...TULSA AND WAGONER

AT 250 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF VINITA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GLENPOOL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...INOLA...CATOOSA...
VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN
ARROW...ONETA...VINITA...KETCHUM...BIG CABIN...PRYOR...STRANG...ADAIR
AND PENSACOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BROKEN ARROW        36.05N 95.75W
09/23/2006                   WAGONER            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN JUST SOUTH OF 81ST ST SOUTH AND
            ABOUT A HALF MILE EAST OF THE TULSA/WAGONER COUNTY LINE.

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

OKZ063-230845-
DELAWARE OK-
317 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE

AT 317 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BERNICE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE AND BERNICE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ001-010-OKZ069-231030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
426 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 426 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO 7 MILES WEST
OF SILOAM SPRINGS TO 14 MILES WEST OF PROCTOR...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM.