Severe Thunderstorm Warning 514, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE DRYLINE...AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW MO TO TULSA AND SW INTO SCNTRL OK.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER CAPE AIR ACROSS FAR ERN
OK AND NW AR...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL INTO NE OK. STRONG FORCING AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
(0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER 60 KTS) AND IMPRESSIVE MUCAPES (2000 J/KG)
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SE OK...WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE
LOCALLY BACKED IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY FASTER RUC/GFS IN THE NEAR TERM CONCERNING
THE COLD FRONT TIMING. EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO BE PUSHING INTO FAR
NW AR AROUND 14-15Z...AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z. HIGHEST POPS OBVIOUSLY NEEDED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE DECIDING ON FINAL
NUMBERS.

POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CAA AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO PUSH S INTO NE OK/NW AR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT GENERALLY FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET FOR HIGHS.

COOL NIGHT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE.

GRADUAL WARMUP TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE DRIER NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. 00Z GFS CONTINUES SLOWER TREND WITH NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE EXTENDED...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  52  73  49 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   81  55  72  50 /  70  30  10  10
MLC   81  52  74  48 /  60  20  10  10
BVO   77  49  72  43 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   76  50  67  42 /  80  20  10  10
BYV   75  48  66  46 /  80  20  10  10
MKO   78  50  71  48 /  60  10  10  10
MIO   75  52  71  46 /  50  10  10  10
F10   77  50  72  48 /  50  10  10  10
HHW   85  59  76  53 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 17
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
445 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A SILOAM SPRINGS TO EUFAULA LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EARLY
THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
NEAR SILOAM SPRINGS TO EUFAUALA.  TORNADO WATCH 796 COVERS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS LINE. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE PRESENT...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  IN ADDITION TO A WIND AND HAIL RISK
...THERE IS A CHANCE OF TORNADOES,  AS THE SQUALL MOVES THROUGH THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

OKZ063-230845-
DELAWARE OK-
317 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE

AT 317 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BERNICE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE AND BERNICE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ001-010-OKZ069-231030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
426 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 426 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO 7 MILES WEST
OF SILOAM SPRINGS TO 14 MILES WEST OF PROCTOR...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ010-019-OKZ068>070-072-074-231100-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-HASKELL OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH
OK-WASHINGTON AR-
501 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON AND CRAWFORD

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL

AT 501 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTH OF TONTITOWN TO 9 MILES NORTH OF
COOKSON TO WEBBERS FALLS TO 17 MILES WEST OF PORUM...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF WASHINGTON...CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...
MUSKOGEE...SEQUOYAH AND HASKELL COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 600 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 AM     HAIL             CENTERTON               36.36N 94.29W
09/23/2006  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ARZ002-231045-
CARROLL AR-
510 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL

AT 510 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF BUSCH TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EUREKA SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT
RIDGE...DENVER...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...GREEN FOREST...
CARROLLTON...RULE...COIN...URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW...BUSCH AND BEAVER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM.