Severe Thunderstorm Warning 482, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 230116
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

OKC001-230126-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0482.000000T0000Z-060923T0145Z/
ADAIR OK-
816 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ADAIR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

LAT...LON 3604 9480 3581 9481 3588 9450 3618 9454
      3617 9469

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
729 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

AT 7 PM...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LATEST DATA SHOW MINIMAL CAPPING AND
PERSISTENT LI-S AROUND -4 DEGREES.  FURTHER NORTH...STORMS ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPERIENCING A
DECREASE IN SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL...HOWEVER THIS REGION OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS REINFORCED A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHICH
WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE TREND TOWARD BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING THE CYCLONIC
UPDRAFTS.  PREVAILING STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AT 40 TO
50 MPH...WITH THE EASTWARD DEVIATION REQUIRED FOR INGEST OF STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES TYPICAL OF TORNADIC FORMATION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=51.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM NOWATA TO OKEMAH
TO ARDMORE. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR A
MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE BEFORE STALLING AND THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WEST THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG LIVED TORNADOES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST THIS EVENING AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORM RISK...FIRE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY VEGETATION WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
AREAS WHERE RAINFALL REMAINS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BRINGING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ002-222345-
CARROLL AR-
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL

AT 619 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BUSCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT RIDGE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...GRANDVIEW...BUSCH AND BEAVER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             ST PAUL                 35.82N 93.77W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

NMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             PETTIGREW               35.82N 93.65W
09/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

OKZ073-230030-
PITTSBURG OK-
702 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEAST PITTSBURG

AT 702 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26
MILES SOUTH OF BLANCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BLANCO...HARTSHORNE...
HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE AND ALDERSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
712 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ001-010-230115-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
712 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND WASHINGTON

AT 712 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF SAVOY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT HILL...ROCKY COMFORT...
BLAND...HILL TOP...HARMON...BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...LOWELL...PEA
RIDGE...GALLITIN...HEALING SPRINGS...HIGHFILL...CAVE SPRINGS...MONTE
NE...VAUGHN...LARUE...AVOCA...GARFIELD...BEAVER LAKE...SPRINGDALE...
SAVOY...WHEELER...TONTITOWN AND ELM SPRINGS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TORNADO          8 WNW ANTLERS           34.28N 95.75W
09/21/2006                   PUSHMATAHA         OK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            STORM SURVEY FOUND A .4 MILE LONG...50 YARD WIDE TORNADO
            TRACK. SEVERAL HOMES RECEIVED MINOR DAMAGE AND TREES WERE
            SNAPPED. FUJITA DAMAGE SCALE RATING F0.

0828 PM     TORNADO          5 NW ANTLERS            34.28N 95.68W
09/21/2006                   PUSHMATAHA         OK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            STORM SURVEY FOUND A ONE MILE LONG...100 YARD WIDE
            TORNADO TRACK. A SHED WAS DESTROYED AND TREES WERE
            SNAPPED. FUJITA DAMAGE SCALE RATING F0.

&&

EJC