Severe Thunderstorm Warning 487, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 230227
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

OKC079-230300-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0487.000000T0000Z-060923T0300Z/
LE FLORE OK-
928 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR LE FLORE COUNTY...

AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WHITESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MUSE...BIG
CEDAR...HODGEN AND HEAVENER.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3473 9498 3455 9494 3466 9446 3495 9446

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
835 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

AT 8 PM...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  CONDITIONS STILL FAVOR MORE SURFACE
BASED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITIES ARE
HIGHEST AND CAP STRENGTH LOWEST.  THE FAVORED REGION DURING THE
EVENING FOR SUSTAINED STORM ROTATION HAS CONTINUED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH THE RECENT CARROLL COUNTY STORM CONTINUING
THIS TREND.  THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION ARE LIKELY
OVERCOMING THE INITIAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED INHIBITION...AND THIS
TREND MAY WELL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS.

WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NEAR STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH
BOTH ANTI-CYCLONIC AND CYCLONIC SUPERCELLS RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  MODEL DATA SUGGEST WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD OF
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE UPCOMING HOURS...AND THIS WILL ALSO MARK AN INCREASE AND BACKING
OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.  THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
WITH MATURE SUPERCELLS UNTIL SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INHIBITION IS
REALIZED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=51.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM NOWATA TO OKEMAH
TO ARDMORE. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR A
MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE BEFORE STALLING AND THEN RETREATING BACK
TO THE WEST THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG LIVED TORNADOES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST THIS EVENING AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORM RISK...FIRE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY VEGETATION WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
AREAS WHERE RAINFALL REMAINS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BRINGING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
712 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ001-010-230115-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
712 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON AND WASHINGTON

AT 712 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF SAVOY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT HILL...ROCKY COMFORT...
BLAND...HILL TOP...HARMON...BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...LOWELL...PEA
RIDGE...GALLITIN...HEALING SPRINGS...HIGHFILL...CAVE SPRINGS...MONTE
NE...VAUGHN...LARUE...AVOCA...GARFIELD...BEAVER LAKE...SPRINGDALE...
SAVOY...WHEELER...TONTITOWN AND ELM SPRINGS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TORNADO          8 WNW ANTLERS           34.28N 95.75W
09/21/2006                   PUSHMATAHA         OK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            STORM SURVEY FOUND A .4 MILE LONG...50 YARD WIDE TORNADO
            TRACK. SEVERAL HOMES RECEIVED MINOR DAMAGE AND TREES WERE
            SNAPPED. FUJITA DAMAGE SCALE RATING F0.

0828 PM     TORNADO          5 NW ANTLERS            34.28N 95.68W
09/21/2006                   PUSHMATAHA         OK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            STORM SURVEY FOUND A ONE MILE LONG...100 YARD WIDE
            TORNADO TRACK. A SHED WAS DESTROYED AND TREES WERE
            SNAPPED. FUJITA DAMAGE SCALE RATING F0.

&&

EJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
753 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             8 W EUBANKS             34.42N 95.73W
09/22/2006  E1.00 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   PUBLIC

0728 PM     HAIL             14 WNW CLAYTON          34.67N 95.58W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0735 PM     HAIL             3 NE SPRINGDALE         36.22N 94.09W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
802 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             WILBURTON               34.92N 95.31W
09/22/2006  E1.75 INCH       LATIMER            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW EUREKA SPRINGS     36.36N 93.79W
09/22/2006                   CARROLL            AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
824 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

OKZ076-230200-
LE FLORE OK-
824 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE

AT 824 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF MILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILTON...BOKOSHE...SPIRO...
SCULLYVILLE...BRADEN AND COWLINGTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.