Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2006

Tornado Watch 830

October 16, 200633 parishes in Louisiana; 22 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 16, 2006, 10:37 AM CDT for 33 parishes in Louisiana; 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 16, 2006, 10:37 AM CDT (15:37 UTC)
Expired
Oct 16, 2006, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 55 counties

Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Bienville Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Austin County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Polk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Waller County, TX

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

38 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 16, 10:44 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningHGXHarris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Waller2 hr
Oct 16, 10:50 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVSabine, San Augustine4 hr
Oct 16, 11:02 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVNatchitoches, Sabine6 hr
Oct 16, 11:16 AM CDTTornado WarningSHVSabine29 min
Oct 16, 11:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHJasper13 min
Oct 16, 11:31 AM CDTTornado WarningLCHRapides29 min
Oct 16, 11:36 AM CDTTornado WarningSHVNatchitoches39 min
Oct 16, 11:43 AM CDTTornado WarningSHVSabine47 min
Oct 16, 11:51 AM CDTTornado WarningHGXMontgomery, San Jacinto39 min
Oct 16, 12:14 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVWinn61 min
Oct 16, 12:21 PM CDTTornado WarningHGXLiberty24 min
Oct 16, 12:26 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningHGXPolk4 hr
Oct 16, 12:48 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningHGXHarris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Waller4 hr
Oct 16, 12:48 PM CDTTornado WarningHGXLiberty29 min
Oct 16, 1:03 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHVernon3 hr
Oct 16, 1:49 PM CDTTornado WarningLCHJasper26 min
Oct 16, 1:53 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVCaldwell, Grant, Winn4 hr
Oct 16, 2:08 PM CDTTornado WarningLCHNewton37 min
Oct 16, 2:33 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHHardin, Jasper, Tyler3 hr
Oct 16, 3:14 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANFranklin, Richland6 hr
Oct 16, 3:31 PM CDTTornado WarningHGXGalveston29 min
Oct 16, 3:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANFranklin, Richland16 min
Oct 16, 3:50 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVOuachita3 hr
Oct 16, 4:01 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningHGXBrazoria119 min
Oct 16, 4:30 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningHGXChambers, Galveston, Harris, Liberty90 min
Oct 16, 4:48 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVNatchitoches117 min
Oct 16, 4:52 PM CDTTornado WarningJANCatahoula, Franklin53 min
Oct 16, 4:53 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHJefferson, Orange3 hr
Oct 16, 5:04 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVSabine86 min
Oct 16, 5:47 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVCaldwell, Grant, LaSalle, Winn3 hr
Oct 16, 6:00 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningHGXBrazoria, Chambers, Galveston2 hr
Oct 16, 6:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHBeauregard63 min
Oct 16, 6:50 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANEast Carroll, Madison6 hr
Oct 16, 7:04 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSHVOuachita86 min
Oct 16, 7:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHRapides55 min
Oct 16, 7:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHRapides59 min
Oct 16, 7:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAllen67 min
Oct 16, 7:58 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHAllen, Avoyelles, Evangeline, Rapides3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2006-10-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2542 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2006-10-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 560 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2542 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
475 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
560 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
719 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
11.5
Supercell composite
47.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS20 KWNS 161536
SEL0  
SPC WW 161536
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-170000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       MUCH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
       SOUTHEAST TEXAS
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 829. WATCH NUMBER 829 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1035 AM CDT. 

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS
OF THE LLJ AND RICHEST MOISTURE FROM SE TX/SW LA NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 15, 10:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalcasieu, Cameron63 min
Oct 15, 11:34 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Calcasieu, Cameron, Iberia, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette and 3 more7 hr
Oct 16, 1:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche and 11 more94 min
Oct 16, 2:13 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans and 6 more4 hr
Oct 16, 3:25 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Assumption, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 12 more95 min
Oct 16, 5:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Beauregard, Calcasieu and 22 more88 min
Oct 16, 5:58 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 32 more5 hr
Oct 16, 7:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDe Soto, Grant, LaSalle, Natchitoches, Red River, Sabine and 1 more84 min
Oct 16, 12:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell and 30 more96 min
Oct 16, 1:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston and 13 more64 min
Oct 16, 2:24 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 6 more3 hr
Oct 16, 3:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 33 more83 min
Oct 16, 5:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSaint Bernard23 min
Oct 16, 5:39 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Carroll, East Feliciana and 12 more8 hr
Oct 16, 6:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Assumption, Avoyelles, Calcasieu, Cameron and 11 more26 min
Oct 16, 6:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 9 more7 hr
Oct 16, 3:50 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Dimmit, Frio, Kinney, Maverick, Medina and 3 more85 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2006Tornado Watches in Texas, 2006Every tornado watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.