Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1052 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWFA THIS
MID MORNING. TRAINING NOTED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. HENCE
DESPITE FAST MOVING STORMS...2 INCHES/HR NOTED PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ZONES. WE EXPANDED FFA FOR REMAINDER OF CWFA
(NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ZONES) UNTIL 4 PM CDT. SOUNDINGS TAKEN THIS
MORNING INDICATE PW VALUES ABOUT 2.6 INCHES OVER REGION. 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS UP TO 800 M2/SEC2. MODELS
INDICATE THE MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN ZONES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. UPDATED 1ST PERIOD
ZFPHGX REFLECTING UPDATED FFAHGX AND RECONFIGURED WCN.
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&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...AND HARRIS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...
     BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
558 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A VERY SERIOUS FLOOD EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ELEVATED TIDES IN COMBINATION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...2 TO 3
INCHES ALONG THE U.S. 59 CORRIDOR AND 3 TO 4 INCHES WEST OF THE
U.S. 59 CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WILL PRODUCE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. GREATER
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N 95.39W
10/16/2006                   HARRIS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 2 FATAL *** EVENT TIME IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TWO
            FEMALES DROWNED IN AN SUV AT I-45 AND TELLEPSEN. THE
            VICTIMS WERE DISCOVERED AS FLOOD WATERS BEGAN TO SLOWLY
            RECEDE AND LAW ENFORCEMENT BEGAN TO NOTICE THE TOP OF
            THEIR VEHICLE. THE SUV WAS PULLED OUT OF THE WATER AND
            THE TWO VICTIMS WERE DISCOVERED IN THE BACK OF THE
            VEHICLE.

&&

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