Tornado Warning 39, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WWUS54 KHGX 160811
SVSHGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

TXC071-160845-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-061016T0845Z/
CHAMBERS TX-
311 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR CHAMBERS COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM
CDT...

AT 304 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR ANAHUAC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MONROE CITY...HANKAMER...

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR A TORNADO - TAKE COVER NOW

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2977 9480 2963 9467 2989 9438 2988 9472

$$

000 
WWUS54 KHGX 160823
SVSHGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

TXC071-160833-
/O.CAN.KHGX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-061016T0845Z/
CHAMBERS TX-
323 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CHAMBERS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND 
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2977 9480 2963 9467 2989 9438 2988 9472

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS
AREA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BRAZORIA COUNTY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF BRAZORIA COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED FFA FOR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS WITH FFA HEADLINE. 32
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 916 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006)
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FINALLY APPEARS TO BE
ENCROACHING ON THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX THIS EVENING.
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO
ABOVE TWO INCHES. VAD WINDS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED
WITH MAX WINDS AT 4000FT OF 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. MSAS SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM THE COASTAL BEND
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. QUESTION IS WHETHER
BULK OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD. WITH THAT
SAID...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
WILL UPDATE GRIDS/ZONES THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS LOWER BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AM CONSIDERING ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FALLING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS WHERE 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL
WAIT TO SEE IF CONVECTION NEARING THE COAST MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
IF NOT...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ADDRESS THE FLOOD WATCH
ISSUE. 32

AVIATION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM MEXICO MAKE FOR VERY SLOPPY
IFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.  LOCAL FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE GREATLY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. 44

MARINE...
TIDE LEVELS STILL RUNNING 1.5-2 FT ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE PERSISTENT
MODERATE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF. WINDS VEERING TO A MORE SE/S
DIRECTION WILL USUALLY BRING A GRADUAL END TO THESE HIGHER TIDE
LEVELS...BUT SINCE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WAVE
ACTION WILL PERSIST ALONG THE BEACHES...THESE HIGHER WATER LEVELS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN PROBLEM AREAS WILL BE
W/SW PORTIONS OF GLS BAY AND ALSO ALONG THE BEACHES RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE TIMES WHEN LEVELS COULD REACH AND GO A LITTLE ABOVE THE
CRITICAL 4 FT LEVEL THAT PRODUCES THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. SINCE
THIS WILL ONLY AFFECT SPOTTY AREAS FOR A SHORT DURATION OF
TIME...WILL STICK WITH COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGHER WINDS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SCA. 44
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...AND LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
317 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
317 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL
BE MOVING RELATIVELY FAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS QUITE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES IS A
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ON MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
SATURATED SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...SOME OF THE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.