Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Warnings in 2006

Tornado Warning 15, NWS Shreveport, LA

October 16, 2006Sabine Parish, Louisiana

NWS Shreveport, LA issued this tornado warning at Oct 16, 2006, 11:43 AM CDT for Sabine Parish, Louisiana. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 16, 2006, 11:43 AM CDT (16:43 UTC)
Expired: Oct 16, 2006, 12:30 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Shreveport, LA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Sabine Parish, LA

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 16, 10:37 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 503 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 244 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 423 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WFUS54 KSHV 161644
TORSHV
LAC085-161730-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0015.061016T1643Z-061016T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
  MANY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
  INDICATED PARISH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  MANY...FLORIEN AND FISHER

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

REPEATING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING
FOR...
  SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
UNTIL 1230 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3155 9362 3130 9356 3141 9331 3168 9341

$$

03

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Oct 16, 11:00 AM CDT, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 11:00 AM CDT, 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED AGAIN TO ADD TORNADO WATCH TO ZONES AND MENTION OF
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLEANED UP SOME OF THE PREVIOUS ZONE WORDING
WHERE FORMATTER SPAT OUT WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH. THOSE WERE IMPROVED
TO 15 TO 25 MPH.  17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1001 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006)

DISCUSSION...

WILD SCENARIO UNDERWAY AS DOUBLE WARM FRONT STRUCTURE AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINING TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. WHAT LOOKS TO BE SPOTTIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NW PORTION OF AREA BACK INTO OKLAHOMA IS ACTUALLY QUITE EFFICIENT
AS 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE PUSHING 3 TO 5 INCHES EVEN UP
THERE. BUT IT HAS BEEN A STEADY SOAKING RAIN. BUT INTO LA AND E
TX...HEAVY RAIN HAS PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WILL BE
CONTINUED THOUGH THE DAY. EXPECT AN EXTENSION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MORE TROPICAL AND SOUTHERNMOST OF THE WARM FRONTS HAS PROVIDED A
VERY TORNADO PROMOTING AIR MASS IN SOUTH LA AND SE TX...AND THIS
AIR MASS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND MAY TROUBLE OUR CWA LATER TODAY.

IN RESPONSE...WE HAVE ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR EASTERN
TWO THIRD OF AREA. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...UP INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SOUTHERN
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD.  17

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD 40 TO 50 KTS...MOISTURE FED
AND STEERED IN PART BY 60 TO 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AT LEAST AT
SHV...MLU...ELD SITES. CIGS VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR. SFC WINDS 10 TO
20 KTS...KEEPING VISBYS UP EXCEPT IN HEAVY RAIN. SVR STORM POTENTIAL
INCREASING OVER TOLEDO BEND AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AND COULD TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD TODAY. THROUGH MIDDAY...TSTM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.  7

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  65  88  59 / 100  60  10   0
MLU  80  63  87  59 / 100  80  10   0
DEQ  65  58  85  51 / 100  40   0   0
TXK  72  63  85  59 / 100  60   0   0
ELD  77  62  85  57 / 100  60  10   0
TYR  75  64  88  60 / 100  60   0   0
GGG  75  64  88  59 / 100  60   0   0
LFK  81  68  90  59 / 100  80  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...LAFAYETTE...MILLER...NEVADA...AND
     UNION AR.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...AND UNION AR.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...
     OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...
     AND WINN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...
     OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...
     AND WINN.

OK...NONE.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CASS...HARRISON...MARION...NACOGDOCHES...
     PANOLA...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SHELBY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...CHEROKEE...HARRISON...MARION...NACOGDOCHES...
     PANOLA...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...AND SHELBY.

&&

17/07

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 16, 6:00 AM CDT, 5 hours 43 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-161700-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
600 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I20. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONSIST OF ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

11

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 16, 11:31 AM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MANY                    31.57N 93.47W
10/16/2006                   SABINE             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAYS IN MANY.

&&

MBERRY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Shreveport, LA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 16, 9:52 AM CDT	Lake Wind Advisory	SHV	Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 11 more	6 hr
Oct 16, 10:06 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	SHV	Natchitoches	39 min
Oct 16, 11:02 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SHV	Natchitoches, Sabine	6 hr
Oct 16, 11:36 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	SHV	Natchitoches	39 min
Oct 16, 12:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SHV	Winn	61 min
Oct 16, 1:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SHV	Caldwell, Grant, Winn	4 hr
Oct 16, 3:50 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SHV	Ouachita	3 hr
Oct 16, 4:48 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SHV	Natchitoches	117 min
Oct 16, 5:04 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SHV	Sabine	86 min
Oct 16, 5:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SHV	Caldwell, Grant, LaSalle, Winn	3 hr

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Louisiana, 2006 Every tornado warning in 2006 Tornadoes in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.