Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2006

Tornado Watch 831

October 16, 200612 parishes in Louisiana; 29 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 16, 2006, 2:24 PM CDT for 12 parishes in Louisiana; 29 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 16, 2006, 2:24 PM CDT (19:24 UTC)
Expired: Oct 16, 2006, 5:40 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 41 counties

Ascension Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Newton County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 10%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 50%

Warnings issued inside it

10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 16, 2:46 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Rankin	17 min
Oct 16, 2:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Jones	14 min
Oct 16, 3:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Jasper	27 min
Oct 16, 3:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LIX	Walthall	31 min
Oct 16, 4:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Marion	44 min
Oct 16, 4:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Simpson	42 min
Oct 16, 5:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Marion	15 min
Oct 16, 5:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Covington, Jefferson Davis	39 min
Oct 16, 5:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Rankin, Scott, Smith	47 min
Oct 16, 5:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	JAN	Madison, Yazoo	26 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 612 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 297 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 460 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 15, 10:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calcasieu, Cameron	63 min
Oct 15, 11:34 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Acadia, Calcasieu, Cameron, Iberia, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette and 3 more	7 hr
Oct 16, 1:26 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche and 11 more	94 min
Oct 16, 2:13 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Ascension, Assumption, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans and 6 more	4 hr
Oct 16, 3:25 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Assumption, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 12 more	95 min
Oct 16, 5:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Beauregard, Calcasieu and 22 more	88 min
Oct 16, 5:58 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 32 more	5 hr
Oct 16, 7:51 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	De Soto, Grant, LaSalle, Natchitoches, Red River, Sabine and 1 more	84 min
Oct 16, 10:37 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Bienville, Calcasieu and 27 more	9 hr
Oct 16, 12:39 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell and 30 more	96 min
Oct 16, 1:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston and 13 more	64 min
Oct 16, 3:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 33 more	83 min
Oct 16, 5:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Saint Bernard	23 min
Oct 16, 5:39 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Ascension, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Carroll, East Feliciana and 12 more	8 hr
Oct 16, 6:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Assumption, Avoyelles, Calcasieu, Cameron and 11 more	26 min
Oct 16, 6:44 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 9 more	7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2006 Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2006 Every tornado watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.