Tornado Warning 92, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 162216
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
516 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

MSC091-162226-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0092.000000T0000Z-061016T2230Z/
MARION MS-
516 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR MARION COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE TORNDAO WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3126 8974 3128 8984 3135 8982 3136 8980
      3142 8980 3143 8979 3142 8975 3142 8967
      3123 8965

$$

GARRETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST DELTA
REGION FOR THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TUESDAY NIGHT...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. A SERIES OF
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WAS PUSHING DEEP GULF MOISTURE(PRECIP WATER OVER 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) OVER THE
REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE
REGION WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...SEVERAL INGREDIENTS HAVE
COME TOGETHER FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AREA
FOR TONIGHT. A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 2.5
INCHES (250% AVG) EXISTS OVER THE REGION IN A VERY FAVORABLE
TROUGH-TO-RIDGE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AREA
RADARS ARE SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.

WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING THE RICHER GULF
AIR...THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE ONCE THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BUCKLING UPPER JET
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE FORCING/LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL AIRMASS MOVING NWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO ABOVE
600MB. EXPECT GREATEST FORCING OVER THE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THINKING OF 2-5 INCHES STORM TOTALS ON
AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY AND LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND TRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO
VARY ON QPF SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL FEEL AREA ALONG AND NW OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE MIGHT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GETTING RAINFALL GREATER THAN
5 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE AREA FOR
TONIGHT ANY CASE AS SET-UP SUGGESTS PROLIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS COULD
OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN AREA WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE TUESDAY
MORNING.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH TORNADO WATCHES ACROSS
THE REGION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AS VERY RICH (LOW LCL) MARINE LAYER
SURGES NWD INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (0-1KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40KTS). THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO MAV TEMP GUIDANCE AND KEPT HIGH POPS
FOR TONIGHT AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY
MORNING./17/

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH
EVERY 2 TO 3 DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN WITH THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THE GFS WAS MORE POST
FRONTAL WITH THE RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY. SO WILL KEEP IT SHOWERS FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS BACK OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ALREADY BE ON THE WAY AS THEY DROP
THROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE  REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
RAINS WILL CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN THE MODELS SEEM TO GO BACK AND FORTH ON THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THURSDAY SYSTEM.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL KEEP TO CURRENT FORECAST./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  87  62  87 / 100  35   7  12
MERIDIAN      65  86  55  86 / 100  68   7  12
VICKSBURG     66  88  61  88 / 100  13   7  12
HATTIESBURG   70  90  60  89 / 100  68   6  12
NATCHEZ       69  87  64  87 / 100  17   7  12
GREENVILLE    63  84  60  88 / 100  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     66  83  60  87 / 100  16   7  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026-
     MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ036-
     MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-
     MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-
     MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-
     MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-
     MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-
     MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-
     MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-
     MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ040-MSZ041.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ015-
     LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
172034-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
334 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING A WARM FRONT AND TROPICAL AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK IN THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ONCE AGAIN...THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS SURGES NORTH
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
VERY HEAVY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN HEAVY TONIGHT WHICH
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAIL.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION FOR
SUSTAIN WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT WITH WINDS
OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THESE ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

THIS WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION FROM A
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY OCTOBER 23.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17