Tornado Warning 86, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 162009
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

MSC067-162019-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0086.000000T0000Z-061016T2030Z/
JONES MS-
309 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR JONES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE TORNDAO WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 3156 8938 3163 8938 3165 8940 3168 8938
      3179 8938 3180 8911 3180 8911 3172 8912
      3155 8919

$$

GARRETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT
STARTING TO GET UNDERWAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SERIES OF
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WAS PUSH DEEP GULF MOISTURE(PRECIP WATER OVER 2.5
INCHES...WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) OVER THE
REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT WITH THE GOOD MARINE
AIR(70S DEWPOINTS) PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION FROM EAST LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH SUCH A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE ALSO HAVE SOME GOOD SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY TO GO WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. WILL ISSUE STATEMENTS CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD AND LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURE
TREND ON THE GRIDS./17/

.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY THAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE MOST PROMINENT FROM TVR
DOWN TO HEZ AREA./17/

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 425 AM MON OCT 16...POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 2.5
INCHES (250% AVG) EXISTS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN A WHAT IS A
VERY FAVORABLE TROUGH-TO-RIDGE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. AREA RADARS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IN ASSOC WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT...BUT THE
BULK OF HEAVIER RAIN IS ASSOC WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
NW GULF AND ALONG IMMEDIATE TX/SW LA COAST. WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING THE RICHER GULF AIR...THAT WILL NOT BE THE
CASE ONCE THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS OVER ERN NM/WRN TX APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BUCKLING UPPER JET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE FORCING/LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORCE THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS NWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. THE GFS
INDICATES WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO ABOVE 550MB...RATHER
ANOMALOUS AND INDICATIVE OF HOW EFFICIENT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ONCE
MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED OUT BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
GREATEST FORCING OVER THE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTN/EVNG HOURS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THINKING OF
2-5 INCHES STORM TOTALS ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
AND LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.
MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT ON QPF SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL FEEL AREA
ALONG AND NW OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE MIGHT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GETTING
RAINFALL GREATER THAN 5 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE AREA IN ANY CASE AS SET-UP SUGGESTS PROLIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN AREA WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE
TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AS VERY RICH (LOW LCL) MARINE
LAYER SURGES NWD INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (0-1KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40KTS). IF INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. BASED ON THE
LATEST GFS OUTPUT...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG AND S OF I-20 LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG...
DURING WHICH TIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT MAXIMUM (100MB MEAN LAYER
CAPE 500-1000 J/KG).

OTHER FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS...WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY GOING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HAVE UPPED GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS
FOR TODAY JUST A LITTLE ALONG AND N OF I-20 SINCE THEY WERE ONLY A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN. ALSO...RAISED GUIDANCE POPS ALONG AND SE OF I-59 CORRIDOR
FOR TUESDAY OUT OF RESPECT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION BEING
SUGGESTED BY NON-GFS MODELS. /EC/

LONG TERM...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RATHER LARGE CHANGES IN THE RECENT
MDL RUNS. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE
PRECIP WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHICH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THU.
MDLS SHOW A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THE L/W TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EVERY 2-3
DAYS. WITH MOST OF THE MDLS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WILL BASE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST OFF OF THE GFS.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER TO START OF THE DAY WED. TUES STRONG S/W AND COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST AND PWS WILL FALL BACK
TO OR BELOW AN INCH. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE FRONT APPEARS TO
GET A GOOD BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THU MORNING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GOM BREAKS DOWN.
THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON MOISTURE RETURN. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE IS SLOW TO RETURN. THIS
WILL HELP IN GETTING PRETTY WARM HIGHS. H925 TEMPS OF 20-22C AND H85
TEMPS 16-17C SUGGEST MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. THIS WOULD
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL. MEX SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THIS WITH
85 TO NEAR 90 AND THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO LOW. WILL
STICK WITH GUI RIGHT NOW BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LOCATION
OR TWO REACH 90 ONE MORE TIME THIS YEAR.

THE NEXT MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. WITH
PWS ONLY RECOVERING BACK TO JUST BELOW 1.5 THIS COLD FRONT COULD BE
MORE OF A DRY ONE. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO WORK
WITH AS THE RRQ WILL BE LOCATED THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. TWO
OF THE BIGGER CHANGES WILL BE THE LACK OF LL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY. THAT SAID WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND FALLING
HEIGHTS (10DM FROM 584 TO 574 IN 24 HRS) THERE SHOULD STILL BE A FEW
SHRA AROUND. GUI POPS HAVE COME DOWN TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE AND I WONT DEVIATE FROM THAT. TEMP WISE...THERE WILL BE
DECENTLY COOLER LL TEMPS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE MUCH COOLER THU THAN WED AND EVEN COOLER FRI. HIGHS ON THU
LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW WED HIGHS AND FRI COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. LOWS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THU NIGHT AS THU MORNING THE FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
WEST.

UPPER FLOW FLATTENS BACK OUT VERY QUICKLY FRI AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT
SERIES OF S/WS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE WAY AS THEY DROP THROUGH INTO
THE NRN PLAINS.  LL TEMPS WILL ALREADY START TO WARM BACK UP FRI
NIGHT BUT THE GOM WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO OPEN UP BUT MOISTURE
SHOULD START TO RETURN SAT EVENING. AS THE LEAD S/W MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY IT WILL HELP PUSH THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT TWRDS THE
CWA BUT IT WILL BE THE SECOND S/W THAT REALLY HELPS PUSH IT THROUGH
THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE DECENT UPPER JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE
AND PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GUI HAS CHANCE
POPS SUN AND WILL GO WITH THIS. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AND THIS WILL REMIND EVERYONE THAT WE HAVE
MOVED INTO FALL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY THAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE MOST PROMINENT FROM
TVR DOWN TO HEZ AREA.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TODAY FOR MSZ018-
     MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-
     MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-
     MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-
     MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-
     MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-
     MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-
     MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-
     MSZ039-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-
     MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ055-MSZ056-
     MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-
     MSZ074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TODAY FOR LAZ007-
     LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TODAY FOR ARZ074-
     ARZ075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

SHORT TERM: CAB
LONG TERM: EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
615 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
171115-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
615 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF A RAYVILLE TO MAGEE TO
LAUREL LINE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TODAY...SENDING A WARM FRONT AND TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK IN THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ONCE AGAIN...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO MAGEE AND
LAUREL MISSISSIPPI LINE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS SURGES NORTH
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
VERY HEAVY LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN HEAVY TONIGHT WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.