Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WITH CONCERNS FOR MORE
FLOODING RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY.

STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY. HOWEVER..RESPITE
COULD BE QUITE BRIEF AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SOUTHERLY H85 JET NOSING ACROSS IT COULD LEAD TO A RAPID
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. DO NOT THINKS THIS WILL BE AN OVERWHELMING EVENT AT THIS
TIME...WITH MOST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE WABASH AND OHIO RVR VALLEYS.

THEN...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. QUITE STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT AND GFS
FORECAST LIS IN THE -2 TO -4 CATEGORY LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAINS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THE BEST GUESS AS OF NOW WOULD BE THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING/NIGHT...AND THE SE HALF SUN MORNING.

IF THAT WERE NOT ENOUGH...THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SPAWN
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW OUT TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS POTENT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/IA REGION BY MON MORNING. THIS
SCENARIO...COMBINED WITH LOADS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...GFS FORECAST LIS 0 TO -4 AND VERY STRONG
WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHC OF HEAVY RAINS AND SVR STORMS
LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ALREADY HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ESP ALONG AND NW OF THE OHIO RVR.
MANY SMALL RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE...WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THUS...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. IT
IS CONCEIVABLE WITH THIS PATTERN SET UP THAT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES MAY
FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AT THE VERY
LEAST...THIS WOULD AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING OVER THE REGION.
WILL ISSUE ESF PRODUCT (HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK) TO ASSESS THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

LOOKS AS THOUGH THINGS WILL FINALLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE MONDAY
SYSTEM...AS UPPER FLOW FINALLY SWITCHES AROUND TO A MORE WNW
DIRECTION.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...LOOK FOR CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...DAY AND NIGHT...UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
MANY AREAS WILL REACH THE 70S SAT/SUN...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE 80 IF THE SUN HAPPENS TO POP OUT FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR WABASH...EDWARDS...
WHITE...AND GALLATIN COUNTIES.
IN...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR GIBSON...POSEY...
VANDERBURGH...AND PIKE COUNTIES.
&&

MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
AIR WIND FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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