Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

THE ITEM DESERVING ATTENTION TODAY IS THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PAH FCST AREA...AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS.

A WAVE OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TO THE SE OF A SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
STORMS HAD HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN SERN MO FOR AWHILE...BUT AS THE
LOW MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DIMINISHED. SINCE LATE YESTERDAY SOME PARTS OF SERN
MO...SRN IL...AND SWRN IN RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...AND THERE WERE SOME SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING REPORTS
OVERNIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT...AFTER A POSSIBLE MORNING LULL FOR MAINLY
THE ERN SECTOR...SHWS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE AFTN. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF...100 PLUS KNOT UPPER
JET...STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...AND A SFC TROF ARE EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WIND SHEAR FOR SVR
TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE. WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL. SEE SWODY1 FOR DETAILS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
EARLIER RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...IT WAS
DECIDED THAT A FLOOD WATCH WAS JUSTIFIED FOR ROUGHLY THE NWRN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL THE WORST IS OVER TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
WAS CONSIDERED BUT IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE COPIOUS CLOUDNESS AND
RAIN MAY LIMIT THE WINDS ALOFT FROM TRANSLATING TO THE SFC THAT MUCH
/EXCEPT IN TSTMS/. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT OF CLOUD BREAKS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SERN SECTOR...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET
THERE.

FRI SHOULD BE A COOL DRY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROF TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS DEPICTED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS BUT LOOKED QUITE SIMILAR FOR THE 06Z
RUN. SO...BY FRI NITE THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHC OF CONVECTION. POPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SW TO NE MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AFT DAY4.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP NEW MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
IL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP MASSAC...POPE...AND HARDIN
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP WARRICK AND SPENCER
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
&&

DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
AIR WIND FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1245 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     FLOOD            DONGOLA                 37.36N 89.16W
03/09/2006                   UNION              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CREEKS SWOLLEN. HIGHWAY 51 SOUTH CLOSED IN SEVERAL
            LOCATIONS DUE TO WATER OVER ROAD.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1256 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HAIL             HARRISBURG              37.74N 88.55W
03/09/2006  M0.88 INCH       SALINE             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1257 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     HAIL             1 S HARRISBURG          37.72N 88.55W
03/09/2006  M1.00 INCH       SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 PM     HAIL             11 N DIXON SPRINGS      37.54N 88.67W
03/09/2006  M0.75 INCH       POPE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED ALONG HIGHWAY 145.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
108 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLIVE BRANCH            37.17N 89.35W
03/09/2006                   ALEXANDER          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPDATED INFORMATION. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT
            COMMUNITY. ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED AND POWER POLES SNAPPED
            HALF WAY UP. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
109 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAIRO                   37.00N 89.18W
03/09/2006                   ALEXANDER          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DAMAGED.

&&

SMITTY