Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

THE ITEM DESERVING ATTENTION TODAY IS THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PAH FCST AREA...AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS.

A WAVE OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TO THE SE OF A SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
STORMS HAD HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN SERN MO FOR AWHILE...BUT AS THE
LOW MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DIMINISHED. SINCE LATE YESTERDAY SOME PARTS OF SERN
MO...SRN IL...AND SWRN IN RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...AND THERE WERE SOME SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING REPORTS
OVERNIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT...AFTER A POSSIBLE MORNING LULL FOR MAINLY
THE ERN SECTOR...SHWS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE AFTN. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF...100 PLUS KNOT UPPER
JET...STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...AND A SFC TROF ARE EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WIND SHEAR FOR SVR
TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE. WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL. SEE SWODY1 FOR DETAILS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
EARLIER RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...IT WAS
DECIDED THAT A FLOOD WATCH WAS JUSTIFIED FOR ROUGHLY THE NWRN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL THE WORST IS OVER TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
WAS CONSIDERED BUT IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE COPIOUS CLOUDNESS AND
RAIN MAY LIMIT THE WINDS ALOFT FROM TRANSLATING TO THE SFC THAT MUCH
/EXCEPT IN TSTMS/. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT OF CLOUD BREAKS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SERN SECTOR...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET
THERE.

FRI SHOULD BE A COOL DRY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROF TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS DEPICTED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS BUT LOOKED QUITE SIMILAR FOR THE 06Z
RUN. SO...BY FRI NITE THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHC OF CONVECTION. POPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SW TO NE MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AFT DAY4.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP NEW MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
IL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP MASSAC...POPE...AND HARDIN
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP WARRICK AND SPENCER
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
&&

DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
AIR WIND FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
707 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ILZ092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ110>112-114-091400-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-CARLISLE KY-FULTON KY-HICKMAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-PULASKI IL-SCOTT MO-STODDARD MO-
707 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

AT 705 AM...PADUCAH DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW MADRID COUNTY. STORMS EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THERE ACROSS STODDARD COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WAS
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH...VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...AS THEY TRACK ACROSS STODDARD...
SCOTT...NEW MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM.

CN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
828 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ILZ086-087-089>091-093-094-KYZ001>014-091530-
BALLARD KY-CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-CRITTENDEN KY-
FULTON KY-GALLATIN IL-GRAVES KY-HARDIN IL-HICKMAN KY-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-POPE IL-
PULASKI IL-SALINE IL-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-
828 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 820 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS EXTENDED FROM MARION ILLINOIS...TO JUST WEST OF PADUCAH AND
MAYFIELD KENTUCKY. WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS WERE AROUND 40 MPH.
A GUST TO 40 MPH WAS MEASURED AT CAIRO.

THIS LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND WILL CROSS THE LAKES REGION OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BY 10 AM.

WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS COULD BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS.
LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ONTO ROADWAYS.

MY