Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

THE ITEM DESERVING ATTENTION TODAY IS THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PAH FCST AREA...AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS.

A WAVE OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TO THE SE OF A SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
STORMS HAD HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN SERN MO FOR AWHILE...BUT AS THE
LOW MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DIMINISHED. SINCE LATE YESTERDAY SOME PARTS OF SERN
MO...SRN IL...AND SWRN IN RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...AND THERE WERE SOME SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING REPORTS
OVERNIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT...AFTER A POSSIBLE MORNING LULL FOR MAINLY
THE ERN SECTOR...SHWS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE AFTN. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF...100 PLUS KNOT UPPER
JET...STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...AND A SFC TROF ARE EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WIND SHEAR FOR SVR
TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE. WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL. SEE SWODY1 FOR DETAILS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
EARLIER RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...IT WAS
DECIDED THAT A FLOOD WATCH WAS JUSTIFIED FOR ROUGHLY THE NWRN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL THE WORST IS OVER TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY
WAS CONSIDERED BUT IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE COPIOUS CLOUDNESS AND
RAIN MAY LIMIT THE WINDS ALOFT FROM TRANSLATING TO THE SFC THAT MUCH
/EXCEPT IN TSTMS/. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT OF CLOUD BREAKS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SERN SECTOR...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET
THERE.

FRI SHOULD BE A COOL DRY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROF TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS DEPICTED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS BUT LOOKED QUITE SIMILAR FOR THE 06Z
RUN. SO...BY FRI NITE THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHC OF CONVECTION. POPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SW TO NE MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AFT DAY4.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP NEW MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
IL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP MASSAC...POPE...AND HARDIN
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES XCP WARRICK AND SPENCER
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
&&

DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
417 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
AIR WIND FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
150 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-092100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
144 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...LARGE AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AN EMBEDDED LINE OF
STRONGER STORMS...PERSISTED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND NOON. THE LINE EXTENDED FROM THE FULTON
KENTUCKY...THROUGH PADUCAH...AND SHAWNEETOWN...TO MOUNT CARMEL. THE
SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30
MPH...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION WAS MOVING EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER ALL THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JACKSON PURCHASE AREA AND INTO THE
PENNYRILE REGION THROUGH 3 PM IN ADDITION TO ALL OF SOUTHWEST
INDIANA.

WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS. HOWEVER HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...WIND PROFILES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE
THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
LINE. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE LINES WAKE. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAIN FALL WAS
ALONG A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF TO EFFINGHAM.

IN ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL
DOWN POURS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. DRIVERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO RAPIDLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLET FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

KH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>