Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Milwaukee, WI

October 2, 2006Dodge County, Fond du Lac County, Washington County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 2, 2006, 5:38 PM CDT for Dodge County, Fond du Lac County, Washington County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 2006, 5:38 PM CDT (22:38 UTC)
Expired: Oct 2, 2006, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Washington County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 2, 1:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 77 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -625 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1114 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 2, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING OVERNIGHT AND
NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM AHEAD OF 18 UNIT 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY
CENTER OVER NORTHERN IOWA...LIFTED INDICATES -5 TO -7 AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACHING 60 SHOULD PRODUCE ELEVATED AND SOME SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
RUC/NGM/NAM/GFS PROGS TAKE 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. THEN CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL
WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

IN THE LONG TERM...ATTENTION TURNS TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. PROGS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WARM FRONT INTO CWA WITH TIME. PROGS HAVE
SLOWED MOVEMENT OF LOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS NOW EXPECT AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER DURING THE DAY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES JUST
NORTH OF CWA. PROGS INDICATE LIFTED INDEX VALUES APPROACHING -9
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES.
IF FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF CWA...THEN EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY NIGHTTIME SEVERE CONVECTION ORIGINATING FORM EASTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER IF TONIGHT/S CONVECTION KEEPS
WARM FRONT OVER CWA FOR TUESDAY...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG FRONT AND COULD FIRE OFF EARLIER.

IN THE LONG LONG TERM...PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOLLOWS ENDING OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
SETTLES OVER GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TZ

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 4:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
405 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
405 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
FOR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-031100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
405 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FROM
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH
POINT LIGHTHOUSE NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE
REACHED TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TZ
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:15 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
515 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             KINGSTON                43.69N 89.13W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       GREEN LAKE         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0509 PM     HAIL             4 N CAMBRIA             43.60N 89.11W
10/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:17 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
517 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             KINGSTON                43.69N 89.13W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       GREEN LAKE         WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:22 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
522 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             1 SW OXFORD             43.77N 89.58W
10/02/2006  M0.50 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0517 PM     HAIL             RANDOLPH                43.54N 89.00W
10/02/2006  M0.50 INCH       DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0520 PM     HAIL             RANDOLPH                43.54N 89.00W
10/02/2006  M0.88 INCH       DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:24 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
524 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             FOX LAKE                43.56N 88.91W
10/02/2006  M0.88 INCH       DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 45 MPH WINDS...NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING GROUND

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:30 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
530 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             1 S PACKWAUKEE          43.75N 89.46W
10/02/2006  M0.50 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:36 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
536 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             JANESVILLE              42.68N 89.02W
10/02/2006  M0.50 INCH       ROCK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURNETT                 43.50N 88.71W
10/02/2006  E50 MPH          DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 1, 8:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge	31 min
Oct 1, 9:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Washington	31 min
Oct 1, 10:45 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		60 min
Oct 1, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Fond du Lac	49 min
Oct 2, 2:16 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MKX	Fond du Lac, Sheboygan	89 min
Oct 2, 3:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MKX	Fond du Lac, Sheboygan	88 min
Oct 2, 6:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Milwaukee	28 min
Oct 2, 6:37 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		41 min
Oct 2, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Marquette	56 min
Oct 2, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Green Lake	62 min
Oct 2, 4:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	43 min
Oct 2, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Fond du Lac	57 min
Oct 2, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Marquette	42 min
Oct 2, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson, Rock	45 min
Oct 2, 5:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	40 min
Oct 2, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Sheboygan	66 min
Oct 2, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		107 min
Oct 2, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Walworth, Waukesha	61 min
Oct 2, 6:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson	35 min
Oct 2, 6:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	33 min
Oct 2, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Ozaukee	42 min
Oct 2, 6:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane	25 min
Oct 2, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Milwaukee	33 min
Oct 2, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	28 min
Oct 2, 6:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson	26 min
Oct 2, 6:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Kenosha, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha	65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.