Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Milwaukee, WI

October 2, 2006Dodge County, Fond du Lac County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 2, 2006, 5:03 PM CDT for Dodge County, Fond du Lac County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 57 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 2006, 5:03 PM CDT (22:03 UTC)
Expired: Oct 2, 2006, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Oct 2, 5:17 PM CDT	HAIL 0.5	Randolph, WI
Oct 2, 5:20 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Randolph, WI
Oct 2, 5:21 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Fox Lake, WI	ESTIMATED 45 MPH WINDS...NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING GROUND
Oct 2, 5:34 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 50	Burnett, WI

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 2, 1:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 77 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -625 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1114 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KMKX 022204
SVRMKX
WIC027-039-022300-
/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0202.061002T2203Z-061002T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
503 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN FOND DU LAC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
  NORTHERN DODGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
  GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  BRANDON...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF WAUPUN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRANDON AND BEAVER DAM BY 515 PM CDT...
  WAUPUN BY 520 PM CDT...
  HORICON BY 530 PM CDT...
  OAKFIELD AND MAYVILLE BY 535 PM CDT...
  
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4363 8900 4343 8901 4338 8843 4375 8842
      4378 8887 4363 8887

$$

HENTZ

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 022208
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
508 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIC027-039-022300-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-061002T2300Z/
FOND DU LAC WI-DODGE WI-
508 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR DODGE AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES...

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALTO TO ASTICO...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAUPUN TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEAVER
DAM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAGODA...SOUTH BEAVER DAM AND BEAVER DAM BY 515 PM CDT...
  OAK CENTER...ATWATER AND WAUPUN BY 520 PM CDT...
  OAKFIELD...LAMARTINE...MINNESOTA JUNCTION AND BURNETT BY 525 PM
  CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4363 8900 4343 8901 4338 8843 4375 8842
      4378 8887 4363 8887

$$

MK

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 022218
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
518 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIC027-039-022300-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-061002T2300Z/
FOND DU LAC WI-DODGE WI-
518 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR DODGE AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES...

AT 517 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAUPUN TO
ASTICO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAUPUN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BEAVER DAM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OAK CENTER...OAKFIELD...LAMARTINE AND SOUTH BEAVER DAM BY 525 PM
  CDT...
  ATWATER BY 530 PM CDT...
  BYRON...MINNESOTA JUNCTION...BURNETT AND BROWNSVILLE BY 535 PM
  CDT...
  KNOWLES BY 540 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4363 8900 4343 8901 4338 8843 4375 8842
      4378 8887 4363 8887

$$

MK

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 022233
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
533 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIC027-039-022300-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-061002T2300Z/
FOND DU LAC WI-DODGE WI-
533 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR DODGE AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES...

AT 529 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKFIELD
TO BEAVER DAM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FOND DU LAC TO BEAVER DAM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HORICON BY 540 PM CDT...
  BYRON...KEKOSKEE AND BROWNSVILLE BY 545 PM CDT...
  KNOWLES...MAYVILLE AND IRON RIDGE BY 550 PM CDT...
  THERESA AND LOMIRA BY 555 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4363 8900 4343 8901 4338 8843 4375 8842
      4378 8887 4363 8887

$$

MK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 2, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING OVERNIGHT AND
NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER 8 C/KM AHEAD OF 18 UNIT 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY
CENTER OVER NORTHERN IOWA...LIFTED INDICATES -5 TO -7 AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACHING 60 SHOULD PRODUCE ELEVATED AND SOME SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
RUC/NGM/NAM/GFS PROGS TAKE 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. THEN CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL
WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

IN THE LONG TERM...ATTENTION TURNS TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. PROGS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WARM FRONT INTO CWA WITH TIME. PROGS HAVE
SLOWED MOVEMENT OF LOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS NOW EXPECT AIRMASS
TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER DURING THE DAY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES JUST
NORTH OF CWA. PROGS INDICATE LIFTED INDEX VALUES APPROACHING -9
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES.
IF FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF CWA...THEN EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY NIGHTTIME SEVERE CONVECTION ORIGINATING FORM EASTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER IF TONIGHT/S CONVECTION KEEPS
WARM FRONT OVER CWA FOR TUESDAY...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG FRONT AND COULD FIRE OFF EARLIER.

IN THE LONG LONG TERM...PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOLLOWS ENDING OF SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
SETTLES OVER GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TZ

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 4:05 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
405 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
405 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
FOR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-031100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
405 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FROM
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH
POINT LIGHTHOUSE NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE
REACHED TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TZ
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 2, 4:24 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
424 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             1 NW WESTFIELD          43.89N 89.51W
10/02/2006  M1.00 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 4:47 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
447 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     HAIL             5 SW WESTFIELD          43.83N 89.57W
10/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 4:57 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
457 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             WSW WESTFIELD           43.88N 89.49W
10/02/2006  M0.88 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM     HAIL             2 W KINGSTON            43.69N 89.17W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       GREEN LAKE         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED THROUGH COUNTY SHERIFF

0439 PM     HAIL             2 E WESTFIELD           43.88N 89.45W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREEES DOWN IN WESTFIELD

&&

PJS

Local storm report, Oct 2, 5:00 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
500 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE PARDEEVILLE        43.58N 89.24W
10/02/2006  E55.00 MPH       COLUMBIA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM SPOTTER REPORTING 50-55 MPH WINDS

&&

PJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 1, 8:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge	31 min
Oct 1, 9:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Washington	31 min
Oct 1, 10:45 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		60 min
Oct 1, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Fond du Lac	49 min
Oct 2, 2:16 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MKX	Fond du Lac, Sheboygan	89 min
Oct 2, 3:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MKX	Fond du Lac, Sheboygan	88 min
Oct 2, 6:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Milwaukee	28 min
Oct 2, 6:37 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		41 min
Oct 2, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Marquette	56 min
Oct 2, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Green Lake	62 min
Oct 2, 4:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	43 min
Oct 2, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Marquette	42 min
Oct 2, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson, Rock	45 min
Oct 2, 5:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	40 min
Oct 2, 5:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Fond du Lac, Washington	67 min
Oct 2, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Sheboygan	66 min
Oct 2, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		107 min
Oct 2, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Walworth, Waukesha	61 min
Oct 2, 6:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson	35 min
Oct 2, 6:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	33 min
Oct 2, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Ozaukee	42 min
Oct 2, 6:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane	25 min
Oct 2, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Milwaukee	33 min
Oct 2, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia	28 min
Oct 2, 6:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson	26 min
Oct 2, 6:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Kenosha, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha	65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.