Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER IOWA INDICATING THAT
BEGINNING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN UNDERWAY PER THE
LATEST RUC/NGM/NAM/GFS PROGS. ALL PROGS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CWA OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF NOSE OF
40+ LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA POINTING TOWARD CWA ALONG WITH 14 UNIT
500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM SE SOUTH DAKOTA
TO PROVIDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
CONCERN ABOUT LIMITED MOISTURE SOMEWHAT ABATED AS POOLING OF 50+
DEW POINTS TAKING PLACE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS OVERNIGHT.
SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOW PROBABILITY OF HAIL MENTIONED IN HWO.
PROGS AGREE TO PUSH COMPLEX EAST OF CWA BY MID MORNING MONDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...WILL KEEP MONDAY MAINLY DRY AS CWA REMAINS IN
WARM SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF CWA. VERY IMPRESSIVE CIN
VALUES FROM PROGS WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM RE FIRING DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT AS CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS DUE TO REPOSITIONING OF LOW LEVEL JET AND CIN BREAKS
DOWN.

IN THE LONG LONG TERM...GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM PROG POINT TO A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF CWA TO ACT AS
FOCAL POINT FOR SURFACE LOW TO TRAVEL ACROSS STATE AT TIME OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG FRONT. WILL BEEF UP POPS IN ZONES AND
ALLOW FURTHER MODEL RUNS TO REFINE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-021015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY
EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-021015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND WAVES MAY BE REACHED
MONDAY..AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING.

DAVIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
841 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             BEAVER DAM              43.46N 88.84W
10/01/2006  E0.75 INCH       DODGE              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL OVER BEAVER DAM

&&

PJS