Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Milwaukee, WI

October 2, 2006Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 2, 2006, 6:17 AM CDT for Milwaukee County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 2, 2006, 6:17 AM CDT (11:17 UTC)
Expired
Oct 2, 2006, 6:45 AM CDT
In force
28 min
Issued by
NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Milwaukee County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2006-10-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2006-10-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 189 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1511 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
189 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
313 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 2, 3:47 AM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 3:47 AM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK
...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE WX.

00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS INDICATING A RATHER MESSY UA PATTERN...WITH
SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. 850MB RAOB/PROFILERS INDICATING VERY POTENT 40-50 KT LLJ
PUNCHING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO SRN WI. ALONG NOSE OF JET
IN REGION OF STG MSTR CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT...ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL ONGOING IN FAR ERN AREAS...WITH WRN
COUNTIES QUIET. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT HANGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SWRN WI...AND NRN IL.

FOR TODAY...EXPECTING ANY EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EWD AS LLJ GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND SFC WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH
THROUGH CWA. WITH CWA IN WARM SECTOR...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY TO BE QUIET AND WARM...AS AMS CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO LIGHT UP ONCE AGAIN. NO STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPR
LEVEL S/W SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS. INSTABILITY
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ASSUMING A
T/TD PROFILE OF 78/65 VALID AT 21Z. WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SWODY1 KEEPS ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO POINT TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAY ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF CWA TO ACT AS FOCAL POINT FOR SURFACE LOW TO TRAVEL
ACROSS STATE AT TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...INCLUDING MODERATE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG
FRONT...AND INCREASING SHEAR COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SEVERE. SLIGHT
RISK IN SWODY2 LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF AREA DURING DAY ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER NLY
FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FOWLE
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 5:22 AM CDT, 55 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 8:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge31 min
Oct 1, 9:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge, Washington31 min
Oct 1, 10:45 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX60 min
Oct 1, 11:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXFond du Lac49 min
Oct 2, 2:16 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMKXFond du Lac, Sheboygan89 min
Oct 2, 3:47 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMKXFond du Lac, Sheboygan88 min
Oct 2, 6:37 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX41 min
Oct 2, 4:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXMarquette56 min
Oct 2, 4:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXGreen Lake62 min
Oct 2, 4:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia43 min
Oct 2, 5:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge, Fond du Lac57 min
Oct 2, 5:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXMarquette42 min
Oct 2, 5:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXJefferson, Rock45 min
Oct 2, 5:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia40 min
Oct 2, 5:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge, Fond du Lac, Washington67 min
Oct 2, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXSheboygan66 min
Oct 2, 5:58 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMKX107 min
Oct 2, 5:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXWalworth, Waukesha61 min
Oct 2, 6:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXJefferson35 min
Oct 2, 6:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia33 min
Oct 2, 6:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXOzaukee42 min
Oct 2, 6:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane25 min
Oct 2, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXMilwaukee33 min
Oct 2, 6:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia28 min
Oct 2, 6:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXJefferson26 min
Oct 2, 6:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXKenosha, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2006Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.