Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WGUS73 KMKX 020949
FFSMKX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
449 AM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIC039-117-021015-
FOND DU LAC WI-SHEBOYGAN WI-
449 AM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT FOR
SHEBOYGAN AND EASTERN FOND DU LAC COUNTIES...

AT 440 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THESE STORMS WERE 
REDEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOUNT CALVARY TO EDEN...AND 
THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH ELKHART LAKE...HOWARDS GROVE...TO SHEBOYGAN 
AND SOUTH TO OOSTBURG. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
CAMPBELLSPORT...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS AND HAVEN.

RADAR ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 5 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER AN 
AREA BOUNDED BY MOUNT CALVARY...ST CLOUD AND ELKHART LAKE NORTH TO 
PIPE AND THE CALUMET AND MANITOWOC COUNTY LINES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 445 AM AND 515 AM OF 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER THAT IS COVERING 
ROADS.

LAT...LON 4358 8838 4356 8778 4389 8774 4388 8816
      4393 8817 4394 8840

$$

REM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK
...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE WX.

00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS INDICATING A RATHER MESSY UA PATTERN...WITH
SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS/SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. 850MB RAOB/PROFILERS INDICATING VERY POTENT 40-50 KT LLJ
PUNCHING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO SRN WI. ALONG NOSE OF JET
IN REGION OF STG MSTR CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT...ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL ONGOING IN FAR ERN AREAS...WITH WRN
COUNTIES QUIET. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT HANGING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SWRN WI...AND NRN IL.

FOR TODAY...EXPECTING ANY EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
EWD AS LLJ GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND SFC WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH
THROUGH CWA. WITH CWA IN WARM SECTOR...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY TO BE QUIET AND WARM...AS AMS CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO LIGHT UP ONCE AGAIN. NO STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPR
LEVEL S/W SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS. INSTABILITY
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ASSUMING A
T/TD PROFILE OF 78/65 VALID AT 21Z. WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SWODY1 KEEPS ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO POINT TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAY ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF CWA TO ACT AS FOCAL POINT FOR SURFACE LOW TO TRAVEL
ACROSS STATE AT TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...INCLUDING MODERATE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG
FRONT...AND INCREASING SHEAR COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SEVERE. SLIGHT
RISK IN SWODY2 LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF AREA DURING DAY ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER NLY
FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FOWLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-021015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY
EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-021015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND WAVES MAY BE REACHED
MONDAY..AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING.

DAVIS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HAIL             SUSSEX                  43.14N 88.22W
10/01/2006  E0.25 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            REPORTED BY WAUKESHA COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS

0958 PM     HAIL             FRANKSVILLE             42.76N 87.91W
10/01/2006  M0.50 INCH       RACINE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJS