Flash Flood Warning 109, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
116 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...
.LONG TERM...

GFS STILL SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
EVENT AS IT INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL THIS MORNING CAPTURING THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND PRECIPITATION AREAS STRETCHING FROM OLD MEXICO
NORTHEAST INTO THE BIG BEND...NORTHEAST TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND A FINAL
COMPLEX IN WESTERN MISSOURI. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT IT TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE BIG
BEND GROUP AS ANOTHER IMPULSE FROM MEXICO RIDES UP INTO THE BIG BEND
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
IR IMAGERY IS CONFIRMING THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING 850 MILLIBAR SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WILL TAPER POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY INTO THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN ON WESTWARD.

KEPT THE CHANCE POPS GOING TUESDAY AS A FINAL WAVE RIDES THE TRAIN
INTO THE BIG BEND AND PERMIAN BASIN. FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR TUESDAY...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO DECIDE.

BEYOND TUESDAY DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. KEPT BASICALLY
20 POPS WEST...10 EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS STILL
INDICATING A NORTHERN STREAM FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WET GROUND EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE COLORADO AND
RIO GRANDE RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              66  83  68  91 /  70  50  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                62  88  66  95 /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  68  88  70  93 /  80  40  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  86  67  93 /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  81  63  88 /  30  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   63  87  65  95 /  30  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  78  58  86 /  60  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  83  69  93 /  60  50  30  10
ODESSA TX                  67  86  69  94 /  50  50  30  10
WINK TX                    68  90  70  98 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARFA
     PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REAGAN...SCURRY...TERRELL...AND UPTON.

&&

12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
225 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 /125 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN...LOWER TRANS PECOS...AND BIG BEND REGIONS.
RECENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS HAVE SATURATED SOILS AND ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL GENERATE RUNOFF AND CONTRIBUTE TO QUICK
FLOODING IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS. ELEVATED LEVELS ALONG THE RIO
GRAND AND COLORADO RIVERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND