Flash Flood Warning 106, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
116 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...
.LONG TERM...

GFS STILL SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
EVENT AS IT INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL THIS MORNING CAPTURING THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND PRECIPITATION AREAS STRETCHING FROM OLD MEXICO
NORTHEAST INTO THE BIG BEND...NORTHEAST TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND A FINAL
COMPLEX IN WESTERN MISSOURI. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT AND SHIFT IT TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE BIG
BEND GROUP AS ANOTHER IMPULSE FROM MEXICO RIDES UP INTO THE BIG BEND
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
IR IMAGERY IS CONFIRMING THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING 850 MILLIBAR SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WILL TAPER POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY INTO THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN ON WESTWARD.

KEPT THE CHANCE POPS GOING TUESDAY AS A FINAL WAVE RIDES THE TRAIN
INTO THE BIG BEND AND PERMIAN BASIN. FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR TUESDAY...THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO DECIDE.

BEYOND TUESDAY DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. KEPT BASICALLY
20 POPS WEST...10 EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS STILL
INDICATING A NORTHERN STREAM FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WET GROUND EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE COLORADO AND
RIO GRANDE RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              66  83  68  91 /  70  50  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                62  88  66  95 /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  68  88  70  93 /  80  40  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  86  67  93 /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  81  63  88 /  30  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   63  87  65  95 /  30  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  78  58  86 /  60  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  83  69  93 /  60  50  30  10
ODESSA TX                  67  86  69  94 /  50  50  30  10
WINK TX                    68  90  70  98 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARFA
     PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REAGAN...SCURRY...TERRELL...AND UPTON.

&&

12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
443 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 /343 AM MDT MON AUG 15 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. RECENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
HAVE SATURATED SOILS AND ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL GENERATE RUNOFF AND
FLOODING QUICKLY IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS. HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
BIG BEND...THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN GAIL AND
COLORADO CITY WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF CREEKS...ARROYOS...AND
RIVER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ARE HIGH
AND LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED.
ALSO LOCAL DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE... HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER AND SAFETY INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DURING FLOODS RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT PLAY IN AND AROUND FLOOD WATERS
OR DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. WATER DEPTHS CAN BE MUCH HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN UNNECESSARY RISK. LOCAL SPOTTER
GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND