Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
336 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACRS W TX AS WATER VAPOR DEPICTS
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MSTR. ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR
REVEALS SHRTWV TROF INVOF KELP WITH 5H WEAKNESS/UPR DIVERGENCE
EXTENDING SE THRU RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND REGION. PRIMARY MID LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN PUSHED E...HOWEVER MID LEVEL IS EXPECTED
TO BACK ALLOWING THETA-E RIDGE TO PUSH BACK W THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL LIFT REMAINS EVIDENT AS WELL. KMAF VWP INDICATES NE WINDS A
FEW GATES DEEP WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT...THUS WAA IN PLACE. UPGLIDE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN EVIDENT I305-310K AND WILL INCREASE THRU 12Z AS
NE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE ESE. AS OF 08Z SHRA DEVELOPING S-E OF
KMAF WHERE NAM/GFS INDICATES STRONGEST 7H-5H OMEGA FIELDS. ALSO
TSTMS CONTINUE ACRS THE RIO GRANDE WHERE IR INDICATES COOLING TOPS
CONFIRMING LIFT ASSOCD WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROF. ACCORDINGLY
SO EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL TEND TO REFORM WWD NEXT FEW HOURS.
HIEST POP ORIENTATION OF NE-SW IN GRIDS LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL INCREASE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIKELY POPS A LITTLE FARTHER W AND S WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES INVOF FRONTAL REMNANTS. ANY BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS TRANS PECOS THIS PM. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOMS
TONIGHT MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM GAIL...TO MIDLAND...TO THE BIG BEND
NP AS MODELS INDICATE LIFT AND PRECIP DEVELOP ON NOSE OF 25KT LLJ.
THUS WILL RELUCTANTLY HOLD ONTO HIGH END SCT POPS TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT SE NM AND FAR WRN EDGE OF
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES FROM A LOW IN OLD MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WILL A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN.  BY WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE WEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US BEGINS TO
BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CWA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CWA.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH.

MODELS HINT AT A COLD FRONT TRYING TO APPROACH THE CWA NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER THE FRONT WILL GET THIS FAR SOUTH. THEREFORE...WILL NOT
RAISE POPS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.  NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COLORADO RIVER IS IN MINOR FLOOD FROM JBGT2 DOWNSTREAM THRU COLORADO
CITY...ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL ONLY ADD TO CURRENT ELEVATED
FLOW. RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING AS RIO
CONCHOS BASIN IS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              78  66  86  70 /  70  50  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                78  62  91  68 /  50  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  80  68  91  72 /  70  50  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  67  89  69 /  60  50  50  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  61  84  65 /  50  30  20  30
HOBBS NM                   76  63  90  67 /  50  30  20  30
MARFA TX                   72  57  81  60 /  60  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  66  86  71 /  60  50  50  30
ODESSA TX                  80  67  89  71 /  60  50  50  30
WINK TX                    82  68  93  72 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...
     PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY...SCURRY...TERRELL...
     UPTON...WARD...AND WINKLER.

&&

49/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
443 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 /343 AM MDT MON AUG 15 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. RECENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
HAVE SATURATED SOILS AND ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL GENERATE RUNOFF AND
FLOODING QUICKLY IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS. HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
BIG BEND...THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN GAIL AND
COLORADO CITY WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF CREEKS...ARROYOS...AND
RIVER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ARE HIGH
AND LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ELEVATED.
ALSO LOCAL DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE... HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER AND SAFETY INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DURING FLOODS RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT PLAY IN AND AROUND FLOOD WATERS
OR DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. WATER DEPTHS CAN BE MUCH HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN UNNECESSARY RISK. LOCAL SPOTTER
GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND