Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
415 PM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN
WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT. THE AREA OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS NOW INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BECOME MORE SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...AND TAPER OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP BELOW 7000 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST PRECIP NOW INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY AND MOVING
INTO COCONINO COUNTY. FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED TO
MOST OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY. DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION NEAR UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND
DECREASING STABILITY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP
IN YAVAPAI AND WILL CONTINUE TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS STATE
OVERNIGHT. VORT CENTER WILL ALSO BRING ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT
WITH UPSLOPE FLOWS INTO 30-40 KT RANGE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH MODEL PROGS
SHOW THE TROUGH WEAKENING...ENOUGH LIFT WILL REMAIN FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP OVER ALL PARTS OF CWA BEFORE IT EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SO FAR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ONLY BE EXTENDED INTO ZONES
12-13 (COCONINO/NAVAJO LCR ZONES) THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE RIM OVERNIGHT.

RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR SUN-TUES FOR IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEAK...A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFF THE CA
COAST BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

ONTON
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING ZONES 004>008-12-13-015>018-037-038.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
715 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-121400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
715 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA...SOUTHERN NAVAJO...AND APACHE
COUNTIES...FOR MORE DETAILS SEE (PHXFFAFGZ).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE
STORM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR MORE DETAILS SEE (PHXFFAFGZ).

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WET WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.