Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
945 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE STORM MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WILL BRING A THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN AZ THIS MORNING AS IT
FINALLY BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE EAST. MAIN BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND WAS NOW LOCATED OVER NM. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING AND RAIN HAS CHANGED
TO SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER SNOW
LEVELS AND LESSER RAINFALL INTENSITIES WILL SERVE TO REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST 24-36 HOURS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WERE COMMON...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REPORTING THREE TO FOUR INCHES...AND EVEN A FEW HIGHER
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NOTED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF OVER
NRN GILA COUNTY AND YAVAPAI COUNTY.

STREAM GAUGES INDICATE THAT STREAM FLOWS AT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY PEAKED AND ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON THE SMALLER
STREAMS ALTHOUGH MANY STILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AS THIS WATER
MOVES DOWNSTREAM...HOWEVER...MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
RISES WITH PEAKS LATER TODAY OR EVEN AS LATE AS SUNDAY.  DB

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM
AZZ 004>008-012-013-015>018-037-038.

RIVER FLOOD WARNING TODAY FOR AZZ 038-037.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-131400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ARIZONA TODAY. THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM PRESCOTT EAST...GILA COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCT ID
PHXFFAFGZ. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM MST
FOR YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...PRODUCT ID PHXFFWFGZ. A
RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE VERDE
RIVER AND OAK CREEK THROUGH TODAY...PRODUCT ID PHXFLWFGZ.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.