Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
345 PM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ENDING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WILL BRING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. MAIN BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVED TO
THE EAST EARLIER TODAY AND ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER AZ ATTM.
SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 6500
FEET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WERE
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING THREE TO FOUR INCHES...AND
EVEN A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NOTED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF OVER NRN GILA... YAVAPAI...NAVAJO...AND APACHE
COUNTIES.

STREAM GAUGES INDICATE THAT FLOWS AT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE PEAKED AND
ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON THE SMALLER STREAMS ALTHOUGH MANY STILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...AS THIS WATER MOVES DOWNSTREAM
MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD SEE CONTINUED RISES WITH PEAKS LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE OVER
MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WILL EXPIRE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND IT UNTIL SUNDAY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES.

WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU
MIDWEEK BRINGING NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WX. ANOTHER EPAC
STORM WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.  DB

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY
AZZ 012-013-016>018.

RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR AZZ 038-037.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-131400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ARIZONA TODAY. THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM PRESCOTT EAST...GILA COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCT ID
PHXFFAFGZ. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM MST
FOR YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...PRODUCT ID PHXFFWFGZ. A
RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE VERDE
RIVER AND OAK CREEK THROUGH TODAY...PRODUCT ID PHXFLWFGZ.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.