Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
925 PM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER YAVAPAI AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT MID WEEK WILL BRING A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER S CA WITH VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE OVER
YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES PER RAWS DATA AND SPOTTER REPORTS.
STREAMS AND CREEKS RISING WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTING SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN AND AROUND PRESCOTT AND OTHER AREAS OF YAVAPAI
COUNTY. ALSO NOTED CREEK RISES IN THE EASTERN RIM AREAS. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST.

EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THE RIM. TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW FILLS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS
THE LIFT DUE TO DIV-Q AND OROGRAPHICS AFFECTS WEAKEN. DRIER WX SEEN
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK AS WEAK RIDGE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW
MOVE OVER THE STATE. CURRENT FCST HANDLING TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES.
DF

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING ZONES 004>008-12-13-015>018-037-038.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST FOR ZONES 8...18..38.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
715 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-121400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
715 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA...SOUTHERN NAVAJO...AND APACHE
COUNTIES...FOR MORE DETAILS SEE (PHXFFAFGZ).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE
STORM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR MORE DETAILS SEE (PHXFFAFGZ).

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WET WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.