Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
315 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER YAVAPAI...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WILL BRING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...FORECASTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF FLAGSTAFF BY SUNRISE AND THEN
INTO NEW MEXICO BY AFTERNOON. THE VERDE RIVER...OAK CREEK...AND AGUA
FRIA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
RECEDING SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON STAGES FOR
THESE RIVERS SEE PRODUCT PHXFLWFGZ OR PHXFLSFGZ.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION TO A RAPID END BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ON THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEST COAST STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING ZONES 004>008-12-13-015>018-037-038.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FOR ZONES 008-018-037.

RIVER FLOOD WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR...AZ ZONES 038-037

OAK CREEK FROM SEDONA THROUGH CORNVILLE
VERDE RIVER FROM CLARKDALE THROUGH BRIDGEPORT.

&&

TC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-131400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST SAT FEB 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ARIZONA TODAY. THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM PRESCOTT EAST...GILA COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCT ID
PHXFFAFGZ. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM MST
FOR YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...PRODUCT ID PHXFFWFGZ. A
RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE VERDE
RIVER AND OAK CREEK THROUGH TODAY...PRODUCT ID PHXFLWFGZ.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.