Small Craft Advisory 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
...HEMISPHERIC...
5 WAVE PATTERN WITH ANCHOR LOW WEST OF GREENLAND. ONE WAVE AXIS IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AOR WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AOR.

...AT THE SURFACE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG WESTERN CAPES IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.
OUTSIDE OF THE BETHEL AREA AND CORDOVA THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS GOING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MAIN SURFACE LOW IS OUT WEST HALFWAY BETWEEN SAINT PAUL AND ADAK AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS DO NOT HINT AT ANY
STRENGTHENING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOUTH OF THE GULF AN INTERESTING
FEATURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. BOTH IR AND WV SHOW GOOD FEED OF DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF IS NOT PICKED UP BY ANY OF THE
MODELS. CURRENT PROJECT PATH BRINGS IT TO YAKUTAT SO ONLY LIMITED
EFFECTS WILL IMPACT THE AOR FORECAST. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OVER THE EAST BY BUILDING THE RIDGE FURTHER INLAND AND THE
TO THE WEST.

OVER THE WEST THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING AS THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 55N. COMPARING THE
IR AND WV TO THE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE MESOETA IS
TRACKING THE LOW BETTER. 925 MB WINDS REMAIN VERY HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPES. ONE LARGE POCKET OF
GREATER THAN 55 KTS STAYS IN PLACE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR IT.

...FURTHER OUT...
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE FAR WEST AND HEADS TOWARD THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY EVENING. OVER THE EAST, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 3C
         GALES 3A 3B 5A 5B 6A 6B 12A 12A1 12B 14 15
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

BELL FEB 05