Small Craft Advisory 153, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED FEB 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE STRONG LOW NOW OVER THE UNALASKA AREA. THE
REMAINS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THEN A DIFFUSE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SECONDARY WRAP OCCLUSION IS NOW
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND
GUSTING NEAR 80 MPH. THIS LOW WILL SPLIT INTO TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH
ONE HEADING TO ST PAUL AS IT DISSIPATES AND THE OTHER DRIFTING TO
NEAR ADAK. THE NEXT BIG DEVELOPER IS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
EXPECTED TO HEAD TO UNALASKA BY THU NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW 970 MB RANGE. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE WARNING LEVEL
WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF UNALASKA ISLAND TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THU NIGHT. WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A
STRONG ADVISORY SINCE FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DIVERGENT ON
HOW FAST AND HOW STRONG THIS STORM WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUND AND
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL BE CUT OFF THU AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TURNING THE FLOW MORE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SAME TIME THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
HOLDS AND AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING ALEUTIAN STORM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THU NIGHT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 181.
MARINE...STORM 155. GALE 120 150 160 165 170 172 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

SAM FEB 05