Gale Warning 246, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 172126 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

AMENDED AREAS 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 12B 15

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 260 NM NW OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 290 NM NE OF ADAK
THU AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE. A 970 MB LOW 425 NM SE OF ADAK THU
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 275 NM NW OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI NIGHT AND WEAKEN
TO 984 MB.
$$

PKZ150-180300-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-180300-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-180300-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-180300-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-180300-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 40 KT.  
.MON...E WIND 15 KT.   
$$

PKZ170-180300-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-180300-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-180300-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-180300-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-180300-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180300-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-180300-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
1225 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED FEB 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE STRONG LOW NOW OVER THE UNALASKA AREA. THE
REMAINS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THEN A DIFFUSE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SECONDARY WRAP OCCLUSION IS NOW
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND
GUSTING NEAR 80 MPH. THIS LOW WILL SPLIT INTO TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH
ONE HEADING TO ST PAUL AS IT DISSIPATES AND THE OTHER DRIFTING TO
NEAR ADAK. THE NEXT BIG DEVELOPER IS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
EXPECTED TO HEAD TO UNALASKA BY THU NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW 970 MB RANGE. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE WARNING LEVEL
WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF UNALASKA ISLAND TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THU NIGHT. WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A
STRONG ADVISORY SINCE FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DIVERGENT ON
HOW FAST AND HOW STRONG THIS STORM WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUND AND
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL BE CUT OFF THU AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TURNING THE FLOW MORE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SAME TIME THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
HOLDS AND AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING ALEUTIAN STORM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THU NIGHT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 181.
MARINE...STORM 155. GALE 120 150 160 165 170 172 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

SAM FEB 05