Gale Warning 247, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 172359
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 964 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 55N 172W AT
970 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND FRI.

$$

PKZ120-181500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...
    EAST OF CAPE CLEARE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT.
    WEST OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT.
.FRI...
    EAST OF CAPE CLEAR...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
    WEST OF CAPE CLEAR...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...
   NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT.
   SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...
   NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
   SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
...HEMISPHERIC...
5 WAVE PATTERN WITH ANCHOR LOW WEST OF GREENLAND. ONE WAVE AXIS IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AOR WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AOR.

...AT THE SURFACE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG WESTERN CAPES IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.
OUTSIDE OF THE BETHEL AREA AND CORDOVA THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS GOING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MAIN SURFACE LOW IS OUT WEST HALFWAY BETWEEN SAINT PAUL AND ADAK AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS DO NOT HINT AT ANY
STRENGTHENING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOUTH OF THE GULF AN INTERESTING
FEATURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. BOTH IR AND WV SHOW GOOD FEED OF DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF IS NOT PICKED UP BY ANY OF THE
MODELS. CURRENT PROJECT PATH BRINGS IT TO YAKUTAT SO ONLY LIMITED
EFFECTS WILL IMPACT THE AOR FORECAST. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OVER THE EAST BY BUILDING THE RIDGE FURTHER INLAND AND THE
TO THE WEST.

OVER THE WEST THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING AS THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 55N. COMPARING THE
IR AND WV TO THE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE MESOETA IS
TRACKING THE LOW BETTER. 925 MB WINDS REMAIN VERY HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPES. ONE LARGE POCKET OF
GREATER THAN 55 KTS STAYS IN PLACE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR IT.

...FURTHER OUT...
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE FAR WEST AND HEADS TOWARD THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY EVENING. OVER THE EAST, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 3C
         GALES 3A 3B 5A 5B 6A 6B 12A 12A1 12B 14 15
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

BELL FEB 05