Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171656 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

UPDATED AREAS 2B 2B1 2C 2C4 3B 3C 4 4A

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 425 NM SE OF ADAK THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 275 NM NW
OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 984 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-180300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-180300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-180300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-180300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-180300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-180300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
$$

PKZ138-180300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT WITH DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-180300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10
FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
$$

PKZ141-180300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
755 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED FEB 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE STRONG LOW NOW OVER THE UNALASKA AREA. THE
REMAINS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THEN A DIFFUSE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SECONDARY WRAP OCCLUSION IS NOW
ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND
GUSTING NEAR 80 MPH. THIS LOW WILL SPLIT INTO TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH
ONE HEADING TO ST PAUL AS IT DISSIPATES AND THE OTHER DRIFTING TO
NEAR ADAK. THE NEXT BIG DEVELOPER IS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
EXPECTED TO HEAD TO UNALASKA BY THU NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW 970 MB RANGE. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE WARNING LEVEL
WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF UNALASKA ISLAND TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THU NIGHT. WE ARE GOING TO RUN WITH A
STRONG ADVISORY SINCE FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DIVERGENT ON
HOW FAST AND HOW STRONG THIS STORM WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUND AND
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL BE CUT OFF THU AS THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TURNING THE FLOW MORE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SAME TIME THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
HOLDS AND AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING ALEUTIAN STORM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THU NIGHT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 181.
MARINE...STORM 155. GALE 120 150 160 165 170 172 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

SAM FEB 05