Tornado Warning 27, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ACROSS AREA EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA TOMORROW...BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. 12Z RUN HAS
BIG CHANGE ON FRONT...NEVER BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT
STALLS IT ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES. MODELS ARE ALSO SPLIT ON
PRECIP. GFS/NGM PREFER FRIDAY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
AND ETA/MESOETA BRING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF...THUS
UNCERTAINTY IN TOMORROW POPS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TOMORROW AND
LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. 60S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE
SKIES CLEAR...BUT I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLEARING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. IT STILL SEEMS THAT I CANNOT RULE OUT
PRECIP...SATURDAY SEEMS LIKE CHANCE POPS STARTING IN EAST AND
SPREADING WEST. SUNDAY POPS ARE SLIGHT SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH.

BY MONDAY RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP CHANCES
ARE LOW TO NIL WITH A BIT OF WARMING TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID
70S FOR LOWS. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.              84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  75  89 /  60  60  40  40
WACO, TX              74  91  75  94 /  50  50  50  40
PARIS, TX             70  85  73  88 /  80  60  40  40
DENTON, TX            72  86  73  89 /  60  60  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          72  86  73  89 /  60  60  40  40
DALLAS, TX            73  87  75  89 /  60  60  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  75  89 /  60  50  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  89  75  92 /  60  50  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            74  91  74  94 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200900-
ANDERSON TX-BELL TX-BOSQUE TX-COLLIN TX-COMANCHE TX-COOKE TX-
CORYELL TX-DALLAS TX-DELTA TX-DENTON TX-EASTLAND TX-ELLIS TX-
ERATH TX-FALLS TX-FANNIN TX-FREESTONE TX-GRAYSON TX-HAMILTON TX-
HENDERSON TX-HILL TX-HOOD TX-HOPKINS TX-HUNT TX-JACK TX-JOHNSON TX-
KAUFMAN TX-LAMAR TX-LAMPASAS TX-LEON TX-LIMESTONE TX-MCLENNAN TX-
MILAM TX-MILLS TX-MONTAGUE TX-NAVARRO TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
RAINS TX-ROBERTSON TX-ROCKWALL TX-SOMERVELL TX-STEPHENS TX-
TARRANT TX-VAN ZANDT TX-WISE TX-YOUNG TX-
250 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF A
BOWIE...FORT WORTH...HILLSBORO...FRANKLIN LINE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEST OF THIS LINE. TONIGHTS STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING...IN THE
PATH OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ103-118-191800-

DENTON-TARRANT-
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1138 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF TARRANT COUNTY...AND
OVER SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS RAIN AREA IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH AFFECTED
TARRANT AND DENTON COUNTIES EARLIER. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 3/4
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE ANY LINGERING
FLOODING OF INTERSECTIONS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID THESE AREAS AND
DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ144-191730-
BOSQUE-
1150 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MERIDIAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

MORGAN AND WALNUT SPRINGS ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ133-145-191845-

HILL-JOHNSON-
1246 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR HILL AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...

AT 1246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF CLEBURNE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

ALVARADO...GRANDVIEW AND VENUS ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ146-192030-
NAVARRO-
227 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 227 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLOOMING GROVE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

BLOOMING GROVE...CORSICANA...DAWSON AND KERENS ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ121-192045-
KAUFMAN-
244 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSSER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

CRANDALL...FORNEY...KAUFMAN...KEMP AND TERRELL ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREA SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ122-192130-
VAN ZANDT-
328 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF
EDGEWOOD TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEMP TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MABANK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS VAN ZANDT COUNTY.

CANTON...EDGEWOOD...GRAND SALINE...VAN AND WILLS POINT ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.