Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS LITTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS IN WATER VAPOR THAT SUBTROPICAL
JET MAY BE SLIDING ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS LATER TONIGHT PROVIDING
MORE POSSIBLE LIFT INTO THE MIX. AT THIS TIME I AM FOCUSING ON THE
SHORT TERM SO...I AM INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
HALF TO CATEGORICAL WITH LIKELY IN THE WEST DUE TO EXTENT OF
CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF NEW CONVECTION OUT WEST AS WARMING
OCCURS AND NEW VORT LOBE MOVES INTO THAT AREA...BUT MOST EXTENSIVE
POPS REMAIN IN THE EAST. LOW 80S FOR HIGH LOOKS REASONABLE IN AREAS
RECEIVING LOTS OF RAIN WITH UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 FAR
SOUTH.    84

.DISCUSSION...
445 AM CDT
AREAS OF PRECIP CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERNIGHT EXCEEDED 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...FROM EASTLAND
COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD. BETWEEN GOLDTHWAITE AND HAMILTON...ISOLATED
SPOTS MAY HAVE SEEN IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.

PW VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM...SOME TRAINING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN ZFP...BUT HAVE CHOSEN NOT ISSUE FFA.
WITH RECENT DRY SPELL...GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A GOOD BIT
OF RAIN. FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH. ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK SW ZONES...WHERE DECENT SHEAR AND HIGH PW MAY BE
REALIZED WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. NOT CONVINCED SUFFICIENT CLEARING
WILL OCCUR...BEST CHANCE FOR SVR SHOULD BE SW OF CWA...SJT CWA...
NEAR CENTER OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TSRA/SHRA CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS FRONT NEARS.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES ABOUT FROPA. HAVE CHOSEN
TO BRING FRONT THROUGH AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
GRIDS NOT QUITE AS VIGOROUS AS GFS SERIES...BUT BRING FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN LATEST ETA. SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DISTURBED FLOW.

GFS HAS DONE A 180...NO MORE DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN STATES. RIDGE
TO FINGER INTO TEXAS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF EVEN MORE CONVINCED. HAVE
HELD OFF ON RAISING TEMPS...BUT REMOVED POPS AFTER MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   85  72  88  71 /  80  40  40  30
WACO, TX               89  74  92  72 /  70  30  40  30
PARIS, TX              85  71  87  68 /  60  50  40  30
DENTON, TX             84  70  85  68 /  80  50  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX           84  70  85  68 /  80  50  40  30
DALLAS, TX             85  73  88  72 /  80  40  40  30
TERRELL, TX            85  72  88  70 /  60  40  40  30
CORSICANA, TX          88  74  91  72 /  60  30  40  30
TEMPLE, TX             89  74  92  72 /  70  30  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
410 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ONE INCH OR LESS...SOME
ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RUNOFF...AND MINOR
FLOODING...IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
SETTINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

42