Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.AVIATION UPDATE...
EXPECT COLD POOL TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH TOWARD HIGHER
THETA-E AIR CAUSING AN EFFECTIVE MOVEMENT OF TSRA SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH
AND OUT OF THE KACT AREA LATER THIS EVENING.  NEXT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND DEPICTED BEST BY ETA WILL ARRIVE AROUND 9Z.
ETA IS VERY BULLISH ON MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND MOVES THIS
ACROSS SOUTH OF I-20.  AIRMASS OVER THE METROPLEX TRACON SHOULD
BE WORKED OVER FROM CONVECTION TODAY AND AM ONLY INCLUDING A LOW
CONFIDENCE VCTS IN METROPLEX TAFS IN THE MORNING AS THIS ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH.  WILL SHOW PROB30 GROUP FOR ACT.  OTHERWISE GENERALLY
VFR CIGS TONIGHT OVER THE METROPLEX BUT MVFR RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AGAIN BY AFTERNOON.  TR/92

&&

*CORRECTED FOR NEW PRELIMS AND FFA ISSUANCE...SEE END OF DISCUSSION*

.UPDATE...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEING MADE CURRENTLY TO ONGOING FCST PER
LOCATION OF BOUNDARY DOWN OVER SRN SECTIONS OF N TX...STABILIZED
LOW-MID LVLS OVER NRN SECTIONS AND PROJECTED SHORTWAVE EXPECTANCY
THROUGH FRI INTO SAT. ISSUING A FFA (FLASH FLOOD WATCH) OVER THOSE
PORTIONS OF N TX GENERALLY SOUTH OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...ATHENS
LINE...AS BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THIS REGION AND EXPECT GOOD LLJ
INFLOW OF 30-40 KTS OUT OF S/SW TX INTO THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WITH ADVECTION OF H85 DEW PTS ARND 16 DEG C...ALONG WITH
INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING S/W COMING OUT OF W TX AFTER 06Z
FRI AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF BOUNDARY...NOT TO MENTION
DECENT MID LVL THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL TX.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND THOUGHTS FROM NCEP/HPC...WILL GO FFA
THROUGH 17Z FRI (NOON) FOR NOW...AND DECREASE POPS OVER THE NORTH
FOR AT LEAST THIS EVENING IN STABILIZED/WORKED OVER AIRMASS...WILL
HOLD TO CHANCE THOUGHT NORTH THOUGH PER POTENTIAL FRONT UP NORTH
SINKING TWDS CENTRAL/SRN OK OVERNIGHT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENCE MUCH
WILL HAPPEN NORTH AND WERE LEANING HEAVILY WITH ETA/RUC FCSTS WHICH
SEEM TO HAVE MORE REALISTIC POSITION OF THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH BY
12Z FRI AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN SECTIONS. GFS WAS THROWN
OUT...JUST NOT HANDLING CURRENT PARAMETERS WELL AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...TONED DOWN MAX TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS SOMEWHAT WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND WET GROUNDS. UPDATES ON THE WAY. 05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ACROSS AREA EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA TOMORROW...BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. 12Z RUN HAS
BIG CHANGE ON FRONT...NEVER BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT
STALLS IT ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES. MODELS ARE ALSO SPLIT ON
PRECIP. GFS/NGM PREFER FRIDAY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
AND ETA/MESOETA BRING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF...THUS
UNCERTAINTY IN TOMORROW POPS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TOMORROW AND
LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. 60S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE
SKIES CLEAR...BUT I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLEARING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. IT STILL SEEMS THAT I CANNOT RULE OUT
PRECIP...SATURDAY SEEMS LIKE CHANCE POPS STARTING IN EAST AND
SPREADING WEST. SUNDAY POPS ARE SLIGHT SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH.

BY MONDAY RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP CHANCES
ARE LOW TO NIL WITH A BIT OF WARMING TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID
70S FOR LOWS. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.              84

&&

.NEW PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   74  84  75  87 /  40  60  40  40
WACO, TX               75  87  75  91 /  70  60  50  40
PARIS, TX              73  83  71  85 /  50  60  40  40
DENTON, TX             73  83  72  85 /  40  60  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX           73  83  72  85 /  40  60  40  40
DALLAS, TX             74  84  75  87 /  40  60  40  40
TERRELL, TX            74  84  74  87 /  50  50  40  40
CORSICANA, TX          74  85  75  88 /  70  60  50  40
TEMPLE, TX             74  87  74  92 /  70  60  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES TXZ135...
TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162...TXZ174>175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200900-
ANDERSON TX-BELL TX-BOSQUE TX-COLLIN TX-COMANCHE TX-COOKE TX-
CORYELL TX-DALLAS TX-DELTA TX-DENTON TX-EASTLAND TX-ELLIS TX-
ERATH TX-FALLS TX-FANNIN TX-FREESTONE TX-GRAYSON TX-HAMILTON TX-
HENDERSON TX-HILL TX-HOOD TX-HOPKINS TX-HUNT TX-JACK TX-JOHNSON TX-
KAUFMAN TX-LAMAR TX-LAMPASAS TX-LEON TX-LIMESTONE TX-MCLENNAN TX-
MILAM TX-MILLS TX-MONTAGUE TX-NAVARRO TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
RAINS TX-ROBERTSON TX-ROCKWALL TX-SOMERVELL TX-STEPHENS TX-
TARRANT TX-VAN ZANDT TX-WISE TX-YOUNG TX-
535 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ATHENS...
HILLSBORO...TO COMANCHE LINE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TEXAS INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF FIVE INCHES. SINCE THE
GROUND IN MANY LOCATIONS IS ALREADY SATURATED...THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

ALONG WITH THE FLOODING THREAT...A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN ATHENS TO HAMILTON
LINE...AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH FRIDAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE FRONT STALLS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF AN ATHENS TO HAMILTON LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ122-192130-
VAN ZANDT-
328 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF
EDGEWOOD TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEMP TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MABANK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS VAN ZANDT COUNTY.

CANTON...EDGEWOOD...GRAND SALINE...VAN AND WILLS POINT ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     TORNADO         TEAGUE                   31.63N  96.28W
08/19/2004                  FREESTONE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN DAMAGE AND TREES BLOWN DOWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ161-192215-

LIMESTONE-
410 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LIMESTONE COUNTY. THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR MEXIA AND 5 MILES NORTH
OF GROESBECK. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF TORNADOES
ACROSS LIMESTONE COUNTY AS CONVERGING WINDS FOCUS ROTATION NEAR
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS.

GROESBECK AND MEXIA ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM
THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ160-192230-
FALLS-
428 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AND
BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS FALLS COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 430 AND 500 PM ACROSS FALLS COUNTY.
COLLIDING SURFACE BOUNDARIES NEAR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ARE THE
FACTORS THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
WITHIN ABOUT A 10 MILE RADIUS OF MARLIN.

THE CONDITIONS THAT ARE SETTING UP ACROSS FALLS COUNTY ARE SIMILAR
TO THOSE THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS FREESTONE COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM
AND PRODUCED A BRIEF TORNADO.

RESIDENTS ACROSS FALLS COUNTY ARE URGED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
524 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ147-148-192315-
ANDERSON-FREESTONE-
524 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ATHENS TO 13 MILES WEST OF PALESTINE TO 6 MILES SOUTH
OF TEAGUE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

FAIRFIELD...FRANKSTON...MONTALBA...NECHES...PALESTINE...TEAGUE AND
TUCKER ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ175-192345-
ROBERTSON-
550 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CALVERT...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HEARNE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. CALVERT AND FRANKLIN
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS CENTERED NEAR
HEARNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. FRANKLIN IS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.