Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 192316
FFSFTW
TXC093-193-333-192345-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR COMANCHE...HAMILTON AND MILLS
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDED WESTWARD TO EDEN AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MILLS AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH
645 PM. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS 
POSSIBLE THROUGH 645 PM...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH 
FLOODING HIGH ACROSS MILLS AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.  THE THREAT OF 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER COMANCHE HAS DIMINISHED AND THE 
COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE EXCLUDED FROM ANY FUTURE UPDATE.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3149 9897 3132 9855 3169 9778 3200 9801
      3188 9822 3194 9837 3184 9873 3172 9859

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ACROSS AREA EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA TOMORROW...BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. 12Z RUN HAS
BIG CHANGE ON FRONT...NEVER BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT
STALLS IT ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES. MODELS ARE ALSO SPLIT ON
PRECIP. GFS/NGM PREFER FRIDAY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
AND ETA/MESOETA BRING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF...THUS
UNCERTAINTY IN TOMORROW POPS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TOMORROW AND
LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. 60S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE
SKIES CLEAR...BUT I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLEARING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. IT STILL SEEMS THAT I CANNOT RULE OUT
PRECIP...SATURDAY SEEMS LIKE CHANCE POPS STARTING IN EAST AND
SPREADING WEST. SUNDAY POPS ARE SLIGHT SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH.

BY MONDAY RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP CHANCES
ARE LOW TO NIL WITH A BIT OF WARMING TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID
70S FOR LOWS. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.              84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  75  89 /  60  60  40  40
WACO, TX              74  91  75  94 /  50  50  50  40
PARIS, TX             70  85  73  88 /  80  60  40  40
DENTON, TX            72  86  73  89 /  60  60  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          72  86  73  89 /  60  60  40  40
DALLAS, TX            73  87  75  89 /  60  60  40  40
TERRELL, TX           72  87  75  89 /  60  50  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         73  89  75  92 /  60  50  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            74  91  74  94 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200900-
ANDERSON TX-BELL TX-BOSQUE TX-COLLIN TX-COMANCHE TX-COOKE TX-
CORYELL TX-DALLAS TX-DELTA TX-DENTON TX-EASTLAND TX-ELLIS TX-
ERATH TX-FALLS TX-FANNIN TX-FREESTONE TX-GRAYSON TX-HAMILTON TX-
HENDERSON TX-HILL TX-HOOD TX-HOPKINS TX-HUNT TX-JACK TX-JOHNSON TX-
KAUFMAN TX-LAMAR TX-LAMPASAS TX-LEON TX-LIMESTONE TX-MCLENNAN TX-
MILAM TX-MILLS TX-MONTAGUE TX-NAVARRO TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
RAINS TX-ROBERTSON TX-ROCKWALL TX-SOMERVELL TX-STEPHENS TX-
TARRANT TX-VAN ZANDT TX-WISE TX-YOUNG TX-
250 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF A
BOWIE...FORT WORTH...HILLSBORO...FRANKLIN LINE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEST OF THIS LINE. TONIGHTS STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING...IN THE
PATH OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ146-192030-
NAVARRO-
227 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 227 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLOOMING GROVE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

BLOOMING GROVE...CORSICANA...DAWSON AND KERENS ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ121-192045-
KAUFMAN-
244 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSSER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

CRANDALL...FORNEY...KAUFMAN...KEMP AND TERRELL ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREA SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ122-192130-
VAN ZANDT-
328 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF
EDGEWOOD TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEMP TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MABANK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS VAN ZANDT COUNTY.

CANTON...EDGEWOOD...GRAND SALINE...VAN AND WILLS POINT ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     TORNADO         TEAGUE                   31.63N  96.28W
08/19/2004                  FREESTONE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN DAMAGE AND TREES BLOWN DOWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ161-192215-

LIMESTONE-
410 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LIMESTONE COUNTY. THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR MEXIA AND 5 MILES NORTH
OF GROESBECK. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF TORNADOES
ACROSS LIMESTONE COUNTY AS CONVERGING WINDS FOCUS ROTATION NEAR
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS.

GROESBECK AND MEXIA ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM
THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ160-192230-
FALLS-
428 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AND
BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS FALLS COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 430 AND 500 PM ACROSS FALLS COUNTY.
COLLIDING SURFACE BOUNDARIES NEAR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ARE THE
FACTORS THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
WITHIN ABOUT A 10 MILE RADIUS OF MARLIN.

THE CONDITIONS THAT ARE SETTING UP ACROSS FALLS COUNTY ARE SIMILAR
TO THOSE THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS FREESTONE COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM
AND PRODUCED A BRIEF TORNADO.

RESIDENTS ACROSS FALLS COUNTY ARE URGED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.