Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 191954
FFSFTW
TXC093-193-333-192145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR ERATH...COMANCHE...HAMILTON
AND MILLS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS 
COMANCHE... MILLS AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM. THE STORMS 
ARE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH... AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
AN ADDITION ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN.  ALTHOUGH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED... LOW WATER 
CROSSING AND FLOOD PRONE ROADS COULD BE COVERED WITH DEEP WATER.  
HYDRO PLANING ON HIGHWAYS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. KNOW YOUR
LOCATION IN RELATION TO STREAMS...RIVERS OR CREEKS THAT CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH RISING WATER.
DO NOT CROSS AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING...EVEN ON FOOT. RAPIDLY
FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3210 9889 3170 9865 3148 9884 3132 9856
      3169 9783 3199 9802 3185 9818 3224 9857

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 192129
FFSFTW
TXC093-193-333-192145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
429 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR COMANCHE...HAMILTON AND MILLS
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
EAST AT 25 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COMANCHE COUNTY... AND 
MILLS AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM AND AFTERWARDS.  THE 
WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS ADDITIONAL 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA 
FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. KNOW YOUR
LOCATION IN RELATION TO STREAMS...RIVERS OR CREEKS THAT CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH RISING WATER.
DO NOT CROSS AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING...EVEN ON FOOT. RAPIDLY
FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3170 9779 3128 9857 3150 9892 3172 9861
      3207 9886 3224 9856 3190 9835 3190 9817
      3198 9801

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
920 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS LITTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS IN WATER VAPOR THAT SUBTROPICAL
JET MAY BE SLIDING ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS LATER TONIGHT PROVIDING
MORE POSSIBLE LIFT INTO THE MIX. AT THIS TIME I AM FOCUSING ON THE
SHORT TERM SO...I AM INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
HALF TO CATEGORICAL WITH LIKELY IN THE WEST DUE TO EXTENT OF
CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF NEW CONVECTION OUT WEST AS WARMING
OCCURS AND NEW VORT LOBE MOVES INTO THAT AREA...BUT MOST EXTENSIVE
POPS REMAIN IN THE EAST. LOW 80S FOR HIGH LOOKS REASONABLE IN AREAS
RECEIVING LOTS OF RAIN WITH UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 FAR
SOUTH.    84

.DISCUSSION...
445 AM CDT
AREAS OF PRECIP CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERNIGHT EXCEEDED 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...FROM EASTLAND
COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD. BETWEEN GOLDTHWAITE AND HAMILTON...ISOLATED
SPOTS MAY HAVE SEEN IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.

PW VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM...SOME TRAINING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN ZFP...BUT HAVE CHOSEN NOT ISSUE FFA.
WITH RECENT DRY SPELL...GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A GOOD BIT
OF RAIN. FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH. ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK SW ZONES...WHERE DECENT SHEAR AND HIGH PW MAY BE
REALIZED WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. NOT CONVINCED SUFFICIENT CLEARING
WILL OCCUR...BEST CHANCE FOR SVR SHOULD BE SW OF CWA...SJT CWA...
NEAR CENTER OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TSRA/SHRA CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS FRONT NEARS.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES ABOUT FROPA. HAVE CHOSEN
TO BRING FRONT THROUGH AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND
GRIDS NOT QUITE AS VIGOROUS AS GFS SERIES...BUT BRING FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN LATEST ETA. SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DISTURBED FLOW.

GFS HAS DONE A 180...NO MORE DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN STATES. RIDGE
TO FINGER INTO TEXAS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF EVEN MORE CONVINCED. HAVE
HELD OFF ON RAISING TEMPS...BUT REMOVED POPS AFTER MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   85  72  88  71 /  80  40  40  30
WACO, TX               89  74  92  72 /  70  30  40  30
PARIS, TX              85  71  87  68 /  60  50  40  30
DENTON, TX             84  70  85  68 /  80  50  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX           84  70  85  68 /  80  50  40  30
DALLAS, TX             85  73  88  72 /  80  40  40  30
TERRELL, TX            85  72  88  70 /  60  40  40  30
CORSICANA, TX          88  74  91  72 /  60  30  40  30
TEMPLE, TX             89  74  92  72 /  70  30  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
410 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ONE INCH OR LESS...SOME
ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RUNOFF...AND MINOR
FLOODING...IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
SETTINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

42

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
748 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLASH FLOOD     KELLER                   32.93N  97.23W
08/19/2004                  TARRANT             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWO CARS STRANDED IN HIGH WATER ALONG RUFE SNOW NEAR
            NORTH TARRANT PKWY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     FLASH FLOOD     FORT WORTH               32.75N  97.34W
08/19/2004                  TARRANT             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            VEHICLES STRANDED AT UNDERPASS JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ103-118-191800-

DENTON-TARRANT-
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1138 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF TARRANT COUNTY...AND
OVER SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS RAIN AREA IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH AFFECTED
TARRANT AND DENTON COUNTIES EARLIER. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL 3/4
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE ANY LINGERING
FLOODING OF INTERSECTIONS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID THESE AREAS AND
DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ144-191730-
BOSQUE-
1150 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MERIDIAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

MORGAN AND WALNUT SPRINGS ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1246 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ133-145-191845-

HILL-JOHNSON-
1246 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR HILL AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...

AT 1246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF CLEBURNE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

ALVARADO...GRANDVIEW AND VENUS ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.